24 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Hey, this is good stuff. TSP talk is on a Sell again, BTW. I'm now tracking it and TheStreet.com.

[Gary Smith]

Hey, this is good stuff. TSP talk is on a Sell again, BTW. I'm now tracking it and TheStreet.com.

But it appears it was also on a sell the past two weeks as the market bounded much higher. These polls are all over the place and bulls and bears alike can find some solace to fit their particular bias. Her's one for those with a bullish bias.

http://www.marketwat.....3B3A10C3F77F}

[Pabst]

Here's my take Gary. The stock market -like horse racing, boxing and going to church- is falling out of the consciousness of Joe Sixpack. A generation ago he would've known IBM's closing price like I would have know who the Welterweight champ was. Now no one cares. Real Estate is the publics market of choice. The white collar guy with the 401k plan is passive (these days the guy is just as easily a gal and she's clueless about the market). The seamstress who lost her shirt (pun intended) in 1929 is now a Mexican who doesn't know Dow from 'ole. Does the demographic of todays urban news viewer care about equities? Stock picking is the domain of those white, male, 50 and over. It's a shrinking universe. Hence the media doesn't see market highs as newsworthy.

Along the same line we'll never see manic, rampant direct public participation again. That died in March 2000 and like Bruce Springsteen's lyrics about those factory jobs, "they ain't never coming back."

Hey, this is good stuff. TSP talk is on a Sell again, BTW. I'm now tracking it and TheStreet.com.

But it appears it was also on a sell the past two weeks as the market bounded much higher. These polls are all over the place and bulls and bears alike can find some solace to fit their particular bias. Her's one for those with a bullish bias.

http://www.marketwat.....3B3A10C3F77F}

[Rogerdodger]

Hey, this is good stuff. TSP talk is on a Sell again, BTW. I'm now tracking it and TheStreet.com.

Lowrisk.com has historical data back to May 1997.
http://lowrisk.com/sentiment-hist.htm

[toni]

Investors Business Daily in the Monday edition say that the market is still climbing a wall of worry. And that bear markets do not begin with investors this worried. toni

[spoo tooth]

With record amount of margin debt,,the "wall of worry" bromide is crap...IMO.

[ogm]

Hey, this is good stuff. TSP talk is on a Sell again, BTW. I'm now tracking it and TheStreet.com.

Lowrisk.com has historical data back to May 1997.
http://lowrisk.com/sentiment-hist.htm

I'm not sure what you guys are seeing in lowrisk polls. I looked at that historical data and it seems they've been predominantely bearish since 1997. With rare periods of bullishness. As a matter of fast they were BEARISH in 2000 at the very top.

Has anyone tried to chart it with the indexes ?

[OEXCHAOS]

Investors Business Daily in the Monday edition say that the market is still climbing a wall of worry. And that bear markets do not begin with investors this worried.
toni

toni,

Absolutely correct. We do NOT have the sentiment signature of a major market top.

What we have is the type of sentiment that can lead to a choppy or at least shortter-term correction.

Gary, those sentiment polls got their selling. Once you get selling after excessive bullish sentiment, you have to consider the minimum fulfilled and look for other sentiment or volume or breadth (or whatever) clues thereafter. Sometimes you get them, sometimes you don't. This time they were very sneaky. The volume came in quite late, telling us that the rally was likely to get some legs. Boy did it.

spoo, ignore margin debt. You can't tell what it means thanks to lots of hedge funds and all the strategies even relatively small traders can play with etf's and options, and the like. PLUS all the pending deals and all the arbitrage that they engender.

Mark

[Douglas]

Take a look at the other prediction intervals at www.marketwatc.com/marketperception for INDU. For 1 week in the future the ratio drops to 52% up & 48% down. Has anyone figured out how to see the history for these predictions at this site? I suspect the best contrary signal would be when there is a strong bias for all time intervals.

[spielchekr]

Take a look at the other prediction intervals at www.marketwatc.com/marketperception for INDU. For 1 week in the future the ratio drops to 52% up & 48% down. Has anyone figured out how to see the history for these predictions at this site? I suspect the best contrary signal would be when there is a strong bias for all time intervals.

There are currently 1034 responses to the "tomorrow" time frame.

There are currently 32 responses to the "in a week" time frame.

There is no comparison between these sampling pools from a +/- error standpoint, IMHO.