17 replies to this topic

[johnmc]

"This pig is ready for slaughter.... we don't know which day, but we know where it's going when it falls off the yellow brick road to nowhere on light volume... It's a long way down to 2583." Sounds like a time for heightened alert for an OEX Put / Call Spike, probably very soon after that.

[underabigw]

Semi..you've been brilliant and can see that possibility with my work on SPX...not volume related though.

....The count is very bullish that I have on spx if we are topping or have topped a wave 1 of an ending diagonal that would target the 1590/1600 area on internal technical fumes....I can't rule that out at the moment ......HOWEVER.....if we hit 1561.80 SPX BEFORE a decent pull back to the 1533/39 area...............that would be a HUGE warning to me that 1530 is going to fail to act as support and we have put in a substantial top with a bull trap having been sprung. Coming down to that 1533/39 area and holding before we hit 1561.80 keeps those higher targets alive.

I do have other technical reasons for the rally possibly failing at that 1561.80 number but it's my own odd ball stuff that would confuse if I explained it all..plus some of it I would prefer to keep to myself....... I will say though....TRAN is a chart that bugs me..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p72820422618&a=34410261&r=7837.png

[SemiBizz]

mclaren is great but is not as certain now as he was before
must not correct more than 3 or 4 days - in a row? or just 3 or 4 negative days at any point since the start of the trend

Consecutive Candle Count, 3 or 4 red would be enought to SUSPECT that the trend could be broken, certainly the fast uptrend part...as long as we don't get more than 2 days downtrend (red candles)in succession we will stay in fast uptrend.







Take a look at this chart for more clarification. All the way up the fast uptrend there was at no time more than 2 successive down days. There was a stealth sign of weakness (big price on light volume - 10 successive up days the last 5 on progressively ligher volume/133 pts) that truncated after the Thanksgiving Holidays in a big red spike down. Then the signal of further weakness was 3 red, we see it again in January and then at the end of a weak volume move confirming the uptrend (6 successive green)on 2/22 another big reaction. But you will note that the uptrend stayed in place because we never did get 5 red in succession. The last time we saw 5 successive red candles was October of 2005(not shown on this chart) and it was immediately reversed on 5 successive greens or more the following month.

So those with bearish dreams of short and hold better get a wake up call here....

[SemiBizz]

So what is different this time?







What is different this time is that congestion we had and the struggle to get out of the previous range. There are several sets of 3 red candles... and that is a big heads up that this is probably a parabolic blowoff...

[SemiBizz]

OK, just one more chart and I'll shut up... this is 1999/2000, you can see again after 5 red candles in October they turned it back up on 5 green in December. The first sign of trouble is the 3 red again in December. We see it again at the end of January. Then we see another long chain of 7 green, we see the 3 red pattern again in March and that was the breaking point. A parabolic high is made on progressively lighter volume, followed up by a gap down day on lighter volume finishing above the open and then a strong 5 red candles to the downside confirming the trend reversal came shortly thereafter....

[relax]

certainly no need for you to shut up ;- this is good stuff so basically you're saying that the next weeks will be fast and furious the sets of three red candles indicate that we will blowoff like 2000, but will turn back down just as fast do you have any time span for this - you previously mentioned july 13 th as an important date - still the case? i have july 27-28 for turning point - so maybe we blow off until then or maybe we get it all this week "There are several sets of 3 red candles... and that is a big heads up that this is probably a parabolic blowoff..." isn't just as much a heads up that at some point we will break down how do you deduce that we get a blow off i understand how you get to that conclusion based on the last chart, but you're not concluding that only based on the sets of 3 red candles just to get you right thanks!

[SemiBizz]

Have to suspect by the last shallow pullback we can still continue to climb parabolically even though the high of the last wave was violated, which was a sign of possible weakness . I think however you have to go with the conclusion that we're still in an uptrend until proven otherwise. Yes, we could truncate at any time based on the volumes I see, that could even be tomorrow... but that has to be proven by the technicals...

[arbman]

Perhaps the terminal is now here with enough deterioration and investor froth...

Here's the equity contract costs for last week, perhaps a (sharp) pull back and then a rally into next month until another euphoria...



Where do they find all this money?!?

- kisa