14 replies to this topic

[arbman]

What are your downside guesses for tomorrow, thank you for your participation... - kisa

[OEXCHAOS]

I think there are too many folks looking for too much downside.

[Pabst]

Unfortunately the index price has little to do with SET in SPX and NDX. I've had this discussion before on TT but SET is an artificial "price" derived not by the index but using the opening print in each componant. I've seen SET (frequently) differ by several points from the true index level.

[ogm]

I think there are too many folks looking for too much downside.

I'll take the other side of that. Look at all these speculative runs into earnings. Look at MSFT volume today and over the past 3 days. Speculation is raging. A whole army of people are gambling on who will beat the earnings estimates for a gap up.

CNBC can't stop talking about dozens of hedge funds piling into RIMM and APPL. What is interesting, they blurbed something about what large funds got in earlier this year, and now smaller players starting to pile in.
All CNBC talks about day after day, is who the next buyout target may be and by how much the companies will beat expectations.

Foreigners buying more US stocks then in 1999. And its "private investors" for the most part. As in, smaller players.

Even though there "seems" to be high level of pessimism, there is no lack of optimism and raging speculation in this market either.

Edited by ogm, 19 July 2007 - 05:55 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

I think there are too many folks looking for too much downside.

I was thinking the same. TWT

[arbman]

I'll take the other side of that.

Ogm, what are you expecting for the downside? 1.5-2%?


(for NDX)

[ogm]

I'll take the other side of that.

Ogm, what are you expecting for the downside? 1.5-2%?


(for NDX)

I voted 0.5-1%

In general... 8-10% correction.

I can't say it enough... financials are in trouble. And that foreshadows trouble for the rest of the market.
I don't expect a full blown bear market yet, though.

My long term plan at this point.... There will be a significant global correction, but over the long term there is a new energy revolution coming that will give another boost to the global economy. As fossil fuels get replaced by more efficient energy.

We are at the stage of speculative run up in fossil fuels. I think they are not viable long term, but at this point the new technologies are not very cheap or efficient. Though they are developing pretty fast.

So I'm bearish for the time being, due to the market simply being very overextended and presenting very little value. while bullish on Cleantech, which unfortunately is pretty pricey too, so its suspect for correction.

I'm very bearish on oil though. But I'm not pulling the trigger yet. I think when the powers change in Washington, oil companies will lose subsidies. And there will be more subsidies given to alternative energies. Over the long term, oil will simply get replaced, gradualy.

Enough feeding arab countries with our money

Edited by ogm, 19 July 2007 - 07:41 PM.

[redfoliage2]

What are your downside guesses for tomorrow, thank you for your participation...

- kisa

It all depends on their options balance sheet tomorrow at about 10 am. It could gap down or up.

[Jnavin]

Looks like more than 50% says SPX goes down no more than .5% and NDX goes down no more than 1%. Too much optimism is the way I'd call it.

[outsider]

I'll take the other side of that.

Ogm, what are you expecting for the downside? 1.5-2%?


(for NDX)

I voted 0.5-1%

In general... 8-10% correction.

I can't say it enough... financials are in trouble. And that foreshadows trouble for the rest of the market.
I don't expect a full blown bear market yet, though.

My long term plan at this point.... There will be a significant global correction, but over the long term there is a new energy revolution coming that will give another boost to the global economy. As fossil fuels get replaced by more efficient energy.

We are at the stage of speculative run up in fossil fuels. I think they are not viable long term, but at this point the new technologies are not very cheap or efficient. Though they are developing pretty fast.

So I'm bearish for the time being, due to the market simply being very overextended and presenting very little value. while bullish on Cleantech, which unfortunately is pretty pricey too, so its suspect for correction.

I'm very bearish on oil though. But I'm not pulling the trigger yet. I think when the powers change in Washington, oil companies will lose subsidies. And there will be more subsidies given to alternative energies. Over the long term, oil will simply get replaced, gradualy.

Enough feeding arab countries with our money

We've been caught flat footed on fuel for autos, IMHO. Only coal liquification might be a possible alternative and it uses quite a bit of oil in its processing the way it is made now. Gasoline prices would have to rise tremendously for any alternative fuels to be competitive. The electric car which uses the ultimate "flex" fuel that can be made from nuclear, coal, hydro, solar, etc. might be another alternative. Hangup is the battery at this stage.

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