17 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Look carefully at the Tick, Trin and CPC.
This is a 5 minute chart to catch the movement with averaging tools applied.
Looks like reversal areas have been reached or will be soon.
I showed this back on July 11th as the green MA turned up and said it looked like a bottom.
It was. Look at what happened July 12th nearly 300 points!
The Green MA has not turned up but is near the same area and I'm watching it.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICK&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p14999560505&a=111513787&r=5768.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 July 2007 - 05:01 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Also watch the VIX as it's near the top BB.
July 11th the VIX opened higher but then fell all day.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p12461623064&a=27927380&r=849.png

[ogm]

Trin yesterday was 2+, as a one day reading its overdone, but..... TRIN 2+ occurs in 2 cases, after a downtrend it signals a short term bottom, but if it appears in an uptrend, it signals an initiation of a downtrend. Maybe someone can post a chart with TRIN 2+ days. I made that chart once, and that was my conclusion. IYB's seven sentinels actualy captures the TRIN relationship even better. As for tick, notice we didn't have any high tick readings over the past few days, it was kinda trending down. To me that means distribution, not buying. There was no real buying. Isn't it true that Tick is generaly high during real strong uptrends, and the opposite during downtrends ? Now CPC, thats kinda iffy. But, you can discount it on Options expiration day Bulls always discount stuff in their favor on options expiration

Edited by ogm, 21 July 2007 - 05:27 PM.

[atlasshrugged]

thanks Roger, all I wanted was a nice relaxing weekend now I am sweating bullets thinking I am too aggressive looking for the spx minis to fill there gap at 1531!!! do you show a gap at that price or is my data vendor providing bear bait for me? i am hoping for it to fill before I go long but now i am nervous!

[Rogerdodger]

TRIN 2+ occurs in 2 cases, after a downtrend it signals a short term bottom, but if it appears in an uptrend, it signals an initiation of a downtrend. Maybe someone can post a chart with TRIN 2+ days. I made that chart once, and that was my conclusion.

Yes, often high indicator readings can be "initiation signals".

As for tick, notice we didn't have any high tick readings over the past few days, it was kinda trending down. To me that means distribution, not buying. There was no real buying. Isn't it true that Tick is generaly high during real strong uptrends, and the opposite during downtrends ?

Somebody used to say the cumulative tick was like a rubber band which snaps back from extremes.
I use the 5 minute with averaging to try and capture that cumulative effect.
I believe it's very low MA indicates a stretched rubber band.
The problem is that with Stockcharts, you can't get 5 minute charts over more than a month, so it's difficult to make any historical comparisons.

And the little bet of selling last week has not corrected the many divergences existing.
But they can last "longer than is possible".

thanks Roger, all I wanted was a nice relaxing weekend now I am sweating bullets thinking I am too aggressive looking for the spx minis to fill there gap at 1531!!! do you show a gap at that price or is my data vendor providing bear bait for me?

i am hoping for it to fill before I go long but now i am nervous!

Didn't we get a gap down on the 10th and a gap up on the 12th?
I would love to see that $tick make a panic dip early next week and maybe fill that gap.
Mike Burk's historical stats have next week as being weak early but with a gain overall.
Aren't we supposed to get that Airedale low soon?

Besides, if you make any money you'll just blow it at TAO.

I drooped 4k on two bottles of Crystal and got a booth at body english with a bunch of people I never met!
then the waitress signed a 500 dollar tip because i didnt sign the reciept! Vegas aint cheap

Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 July 2007 - 05:51 PM.

[emdee]

TRIN Closing Prices vs SPX:


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p01841882335&a=112501668&r=7269.png

[atlasshrugged]

TRIN 2+ occurs in 2 cases, after a downtrend it signals a short term bottom, but if it appears in an uptrend, it signals an initiation of a downtrend. Maybe someone can post a chart with TRIN 2+ days. I made that chart once, and that was my conclusion.

Yes, often high indicator readings can be "initiation signals".

As for tick, notice we didn't have any high tick readings over the past few days, it was kinda trending down. To me that means distribution, not buying. There was no real buying. Isn't it true that Tick is generaly high during real strong uptrends, and the opposite during downtrends ?

Somebody used to say the cumulative tick was like a rubber band which snaps back from extremes.
I use the 5 minute with averaging to try and capture that cumulative effect.
I believe it's very low MA indicates a stretched rubber band.
The problem is that with Stockcharts, you can't get 5 minute charts over more than a month, so it's difficult to make any historical comparisons.

And the little bet of selling last week has not corrected the many divergences existing.
But they can last "longer than is possible".

thanks Roger, all I wanted was a nice relaxing weekend now I am sweating bullets thinking I am too aggressive looking for the spx minis to fill there gap at 1531!!! do you show a gap at that price or is my data vendor providing bear bait for me?

i am hoping for it to fill before I go long but now i am nervous!

Didn't we get a gap down on the 10th and a gap up on the 12th?
I would love to see that $tick make a panic dip early next week and maybe fill that gap.
Mike Burk's historical stats have next week as being weak early but with a gain overall.
Aren't we supposed to get that Airedale low soon?

Besides, if you make any money you'll just blow it at TAO.

I drooped 4k on two bottles of Crystal and got a booth at body english with a bunch of people I never met!
then the waitress signed a 500 dollar tip because i didnt sign the reciept! Vegas aint cheap

LOL! thanks DAD! you show a gap on the charts to? correct?

[ogm]

Brickie, thanks for the chart. Is it possible to go back into the other years ? this year is just all uptrend and its not very representative. I remeber there were cases in 2005-2006, when we had previous IT corrections. And certainly there was plenty of high trin at the start of 2001 market drop. High TRIn means only one thing a lot of money is leaving the market, nothing else. As we all know markets can be oversold or overbought for a long time.

Edited by ogm, 21 July 2007 - 06:28 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

LOL! thanks DAD! you show a gap on the charts to? correct?

I don't have the e-minis but SPY follows futures pretty well and it shows that gap.

[atlasshrugged]

LOL! thanks DAD! you show a gap on the charts to? correct?

I don't have the e-minis but SPY follows futures pretty well and it shows that gap.

thanks!

do you think we fill it first before turning?

If you had to guess that is?