18 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



Volume is declining on the way down, therefore we're going to consolidate and test some previously high volume highs starting with 2609, we may or may not be testing 2632 on this rally. Overall we are setting up the next leg down....

[hiker]

ideal level to sell is what level? ...based on your comment that overall trade setup is for another decline understand if you want to keep that to yourself till you have entered the trade..thanks for the info. i notice 49k shares now being offered on QQQQ at 48.65..one penny below the .66 horizontal...I bet sellers next tgt 49.12 if it gets there...just a hip shot..am still working on that plus there is a d/t line now terminating about 30 cents above 49.12 today's QQQQ high was very near another d/t line drawn off the 7/24 high on the 15 minute

Edited by hiker, 30 July 2007 - 03:30 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Well, step by step. I am looking for the volume data on a 3 min chart that would give me a reason to believe there is an overt or stealth sign of weakness. So in order from here these are the pivots I am watching: 2603 (30 min volume resistance) 2609 (Friday's High volume high) 2619 (pivot & approximates .382R) 2631-2 (pivot and all time volume high) So, bear this in mind. In order to be short this market, you better have conviction. And that conviction better be backed up with good technicals. So IDEALLY, what would happen? We'd gap up into the 2632 high on light volume and have a strong price rejection. THEN, what I would be looking for to STAY SHORT, is confirmation of the local high volume price rejection at 2632, AND the 1/3/01 high volume superspike candle high of 2619 to reject that as well, and CLOSE under it... That's the ideal. I'll be looking for any verifiable weakness to get short....

Edited by SemiBizz, 30 July 2007 - 03:33 PM.

[relax]

also, i guess today's lower volume is a somewhat bullish signal but setting up for next move down - which factors are you basing that on nearly everybody is expecting it

[Jnavin]

In e-wave terms, the "A" of an ABC-up is done. Some folks use other letters, but I'm old fashioned.

[relax]

i see your point with regards to getting short at 2.632 but with regards to the move down we get from there, are you going to see as it evolves or do you already now expect lower lows cheers

[SemiBizz]

I see ABC Down, not up. A-2732 ........................180pts B-2552 ......................... C- ??? D = (C point - 180) We expect a "B to C" move to come on lighter volume and that's exactly what we are getting. And then to confirm the "C to D" move we need to see strong volume at the B point (today's low 2552). The interval for the A to B move was 180 pts... a .50 retracement would be a full 90 pts or 2642 area. If we had a .50 retracement however that would probably mark the end of the fast downtrend we are experiencing. We should not have more than 2 green candles in succession either or that cancels it as well...

Edited by SemiBizz, 30 July 2007 - 03:51 PM.

[Jnavin]

Semi, it looks like a 5 down to me from the 1550+ high and we're done with 3 of it. We've got a 4th back up and that's the ABC I'm speaking of. Then, we'll see a 5th wave sell-off down below 1460 again.

[SemiBizz]

Semi, it looks like a 5 down to me from the 1550+ high and we're done with 3 of it. We've got a 4th back up and that's the ABC I'm speaking of. Then, we'll see a 5th wave sell-off down below 1460 again.

If you are talking about ES, I looked at it last nite, it looks like it could go quite a bit higher(1530) from here, which makes me wonder about Nasdaq as well.

[SemiBizz]

Approaching first target at 2609....