15 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Don't worry, you don't have to tell me I am too bullish, the facts are all out there. This is the make or break time and it is all up to the Fed now...

By the end of this week, the 40 wk FLD will reach to 1440 level, if the market does not rally back above 1460 support, we will have about 120 points downside triggered.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p52132118620&r=1751&.png

- kisa

[kaiser soze]

Wash out low ? To me, Thursday afternoon looked more like the washout high with all weak shorts chased out of the market. Any position shorts that remained after Wed and Thur must be strong hands indeed. On the other hand, all position longs who entered the market Wed afternoon are underwater already.

[arbman]

BTW, if the market tries to another washout, it will definitely trigger the 40 wk FLD sometime around the Fed meeting and actually the downside potential will grow with it. So, the market does not even have the luxury right now to consolidate here, it MUST move right back up to near 1460... This is REEEEAAAAALLLLY REEEEAAAAALLLLY the make or break it time...

Edited by kisacik, 04 August 2007 - 11:59 AM.

[eminimee]

If the Friday's low is a major bottom for the next 3 months, I'll shave my head...........

We are going to need a "before" picture for comparison with the "after"...



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=8&i=p27723972068&a=90931516&r=6849.png

[arbman]

BTW, the 40 wk FLD for OEX will be at 550 by the end of next week. So, it is much less likely to break unless there will be another furious sell off of at least 17-18 points next week... However, the index must continue its path upward thereafter, before it catches up with it in the weeks ahead since the FLD line will rise above 675 by the end of August...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p52132118620&r=1751&.png

We also have a signal here;

(Securities Lending Transaction Volume)

Equity calls puts ratio, index calls puts ratio, total calls puts ratio

9:00 AM 163082 120877 0.741204 72953 122443 1.678382 236035 243320 1.030864
9:30 AM 115798 101517 0.876673 68237 292711 4.289623 184035 394228 2.142136
10:00 AM 109618 100535 0.917140 64228 304830 4.746061 173846 405365 2.331748
10:30 AM 73988 64595 0.873047 75940 106541 1.402963 149928 171136 1.141455
11:00 AM 72321 54347 0.751469 53832 107375 1.994631 126153 161722 1.281951
11:30 AM 75686 61913 0.818024 29710 90760 3.054864 105396 152673 1.448565
12:00 PM 55973 43772 0.782020 13143 41551 3.161455 69116 85323 1.234490
12:30 PM 66962 39340 0.587497 18190 71204 3.914458 85152 110544 1.298196
1:00 PM 65515 53684 0.819415 17050 64631 3.790674 82570 118315 1.432905
1:30 PM 115197 70777 0.614400 44318 88845 2.004716 159515 159622 1.000671
2:00 PM 147408 85735 0.581617 30044 105649 3.516476 177472 191384 1.078390
2:30 PM 120634 116540 0.966063 81394 170243 2.091592 202028 286783 1.419521
3:00 PM 128872 113086 0.877506 96281 239516 2.487677 225153 352602 1.566055

Very heavy shorting in the last hour...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 04 August 2007 - 01:16 PM.

[ogm]

Board is too bullish, the complexion of this market changed two weeks ago, Bull market has trained traders to compete for the lowest prices before they were whisked off to new highs.. All you had to do was go long, if you paid too much eventually the bull market bailed you out, so why not buy?... Bottom? You don't need to worry about bottom now... Bottom is now a plateau, not a "V". I wonder how long it will be before the obsession changes to picking the top, like it was in June... when the board had decided that enough was enough and that a retracement was certain to come? Grab a piece of that Inverted V when you can, because you will get ALL DAY to cover.

Too bullish ? Have you looked at the position polls ?