8 replies to this topic

[Frac_Man]

Looking at the chart will pop open eyes

[Tor]

Looking at the chart will pop open eyes

Hank you always talk in riddles. Its pointless.

So what everyone knows 1998 plummeted. People are comparing it to now.

This decline is potentially like 1987, 1929, 1998, and indeed all and any other rapid decline.

What 1998 iteration? What pop of eyes? Allthose declines pop eyes.

Are you saying this current move down is similar to 1998 in both time and price?

[selecto]

This 1998?

[Cirrus]

I'm the original '1998 guy'. I've been saying that the Fed need's a ST liquidity crisis to create an environment to lower rates and get bonds to undergo a spike rally. This will also allow commodities to possible undergo ST liquidation. If this is the case we will get a rate cut the meeting after this one--late Sep.

[Rogerdodger]

GOOD ONE, Cirrus!

I would still lean for a 1998 style 'correction'--in the Jun-Oct time frame. It's more a gut feel and total guess than based on research. Airedale's cycle stuff is the only thing that points in that direction. I guess that's a good thing towards getting it right.

[relax]

march 16 2003 S&P 500 made a bottom add 234-240 months (4 and a half year) and you get a time frame ending in october seems like late october will provide the buy oppurtunity of the year

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm the original '1998 guy'. I've been saying that the Fed need's a ST liquidity crisis to create an environment to lower rates and get bonds to undergo a spike rally. This will also allow commodities to possible undergo ST liquidation. If this is the case we will get a rate cut the meeting after this one--late Sep.

This is what I was thinking, too. It all feels choreographed.

The stock market is NOT a problem. Resets ARE. If there are some nice low rates for folks to re-set at, disaster will be averted. But the fed can't cut unless it has clear reason too--the markets have to be moving in the right direction.

The tricky part will be to make sure that the cheap money will actually be available. I'm noting that mortgage rates don't seem to be falling with the 30-year. Maybe a reduction in reserve requirements for a time?

Mark

[Pabst]

It's all about 1997. Do the counts. It's already over on the downside.

[Cirrus]

I'm the original '1998 guy'. I've been saying that the Fed need's a ST liquidity crisis to create an environment to lower rates and get bonds to undergo a spike rally. This will also allow commodities to possible undergo ST liquidation. If this is the case we will get a rate cut the meeting after this one--late Sep.

This is what I was thinking, too. It all feels choreographed.

The stock market is NOT a problem. Resets ARE. If there are some nice low rates for folks to re-set at, disaster will be averted. But the fed can't cut unless it has clear reason too--the markets have to be moving in the right direction.

The tricky part will be to make sure that the cheap money will actually be available. I'm noting that mortgage rates don't seem to be falling with the 30-year. Maybe a reduction in reserve requirements for a time?

Mark

How about a sharp retrace in the 10 yr to 4.25%ish? Thats what I think for this fall/winter. IMO that will be the last nice rally in bonds before rates climb and inflation escalates somewhat into 2008-10. There's plenty of inflation in the pipeline IMO.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=$TNX,uu[f,a]macayyay[p][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J28883404,Y]&r=501.png