14 replies to this topic

[denleo]

We have to CRASH. There is no way out. Interventions, sentiment, support levels... it does not matter. This is the only way out. The world is scared (financial world) and when they get scared, they get shot. Try to make money or just try not to lose. CRASH!!! Denleo

[SemiBizz]

I agree !!



TAKE THE CRASH AND RUN !!!

[swanstkdh]

Are you guys short???

[dcengr]

Don't think we're crashing. Don't think we're in 1998 either.

[thespookyone]

Whew I'm glad you said that. I was looking at afterhours thinking it could be a terrible open-now I know everything will be OK. There is nothing like total certainty to create a path to failure.

[ogm]

I'm looking at a lot of stocks now... and a lot of them I want to buy. Mostly stuff that pays good dividends. A lot of stocks look pretty darn cheap or very reasonably priced. I can't say that the market is overvalued by any stretch. Though the other half I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. Go figure

[ken29]

Finally I can agree with Denleo

[ogm]

Finally I can agree with Denleo

But here is the thing... there is absolute panic out there.... And I'm terrified myself,
I personaly think that the world as we know it is coming to an end. That we'll have depressed economy, skyrocketing crime, mountains of defaulting debt


And yet I'm going to close my eyes and buy what I think looks good and cheap. This is a completely counterintuitive trade. And its extremely hard to buy fear. But I'm buying FEAR . Real FEAR. This is no joke out there.

There is no way in the right mind I can short this. Not with summations so low, not with so much FEAR out there.
The only way to protect yourself is to sell calls against long positions. And I did it on a few of them.

But I'm going to close my eyes and buy more stuff tomorrow and next week. Especcialy if we freefall into opex on delta hedging.


But I have to be honest... my portfolio didn't do even half as bad as the market. Quite a few stocks went up,

new all time highs on LDK, PBW, SAM, AMAT yesterday. New all time highs on ANDE and PG today. A lot of other stocks are still up 15-20% from where I was buying in the last few days.

I was actually down around 1% today with indexes down 3%.

And I'm looking at chart after chart, and they all look like they are about to bounce.

Not many look like they are about to go into freefall.

Remember that broader market was selling for many weeks. Look at $NYSI. A lot of stocks look just plain sold out.

[libs]

so what you're saying is you're ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN its going to bounce and can't get any worse. ???

Edited by libs, 09 August 2007 - 09:37 PM.

[ogm]

so what you're saying is you're ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN its going to bounce and can't get any worse. ???

No. Thats not what I'm saying. It can get much worse. We can go into absolute freefall fueled by margin selling and other deleveraging. And of course more panic.

VIX 40+

But.... betting on it from the short side isn't the most prudent idea, IMO. Betting here short is betting on a crash. Crashes are a rare probability event.

And as I said... a lot of stocks look sold out. I'm looking at many charts today, and a lot of them closed above the open. Yes, they are down for the day, yes the volume is high.. and yet they closed above the opening price.... hmm.

Take a look at BAC, FIG,NYX,USB,BAM,AKAM,VSE,IYR and so on....... quite a few, even Greenie's favorite NRO. General feeling.. the stuff is sold out. And oversold summations saying the same thing.

But of course it can get worse.

Edited by ogm, 09 August 2007 - 09:50 PM.