13 replies to this topic

[ogm]

One one hand the chart looks ready to explode with massive positive divergences and momentum structure, even though its still yet to break through major resistance.


On the other hand, look at the volume..
these funds are a new alternative to Rydex. And from contrarian perspective huge volume over the past few days means that a lot of people are betting against the market here.

If you compare SSO or QLD ( the ultra long funds) they never got as much volume attention as short funds.
Even though volume exploded in them too, like it did across the board.... they still trade on more then 10 time !!! less volume.

If daily volume in SDS is 20-25 mil last few days..... SSO daily is about 1.5-2 mil

Is that contrarian ? Question yet to be answered.

[traderpaul]

Look at the volume.....SDS (short 500) exploded on the upside with massive volume......
http://stockcharts.c...7737&r=5796.png

Edited by traderpaul, 11 August 2007 - 09:37 AM.

[ogm]

Yes, thats what I said Its the volume that I'm questioning. Are the massive bets on leveraged short positions bullish or bearish ? Thats the question. If you saw put/call exploding ( which it sort of is) ... where people make massive bets on options that the markets go dwon.. would you treat it bullish or bearish ? Or if you saw huge money flows into Rydex bear funds.. is that bullish or bearish ? Isn't this the same thing ?

Edited by ogm, 11 August 2007 - 09:41 AM.

[traderpaul]

Yes, thats what I said Its the volume that I'm questioning.

Are the massive bets on leveraged short positions bullish or bearish ? Thats the question.

If you saw put/call exploding ( which it sort of is) ... where people make massive bets on options that the markets go dwon.. would you treat it bullish or bearish ?
Or if you saw huge money flows into Rydex bear funds.. is that bullish or bearish ?
Isn't this the same thing ?

Just basic TA with price and volume.....Sorry i don't look at p/c and flow of money etc.....They are just too many things to look at.....It is like saying that everyone brought home insurance and therefore there will be no hurricane.....

[ogm]

Yes, thats what I said Its the volume that I'm questioning.

Are the massive bets on leveraged short positions bullish or bearish ? Thats the question.

If you saw put/call exploding ( which it sort of is) ... where people make massive bets on options that the markets go dwon.. would you treat it bullish or bearish ?
Or if you saw huge money flows into Rydex bear funds.. is that bullish or bearish ?
Isn't this the same thing ?

Just basic TA with price and volume.....Sorry i don't look at p/c and flow of money etc.....They are just too many things to look at.....It is like saying that everyone brought home insurance and therefore there will be no hurricane.....

Then this topic is not for you

[Rogerdodger]

Its the volume that I'm questioning.

I would say that's some fast money which, in view of the volatility, may include several flips in one day by thousands of players.

Maybe some very big players.

Like me.

[Drano]

Its the volume that I'm questioning.

I would say that's some fast money which, in view of the volatility, may include several flips in one day by thousands of players.

Maybe some very big players.

Like me.

And some tiny chicken players.

Like me.

I think an awful lot of the SDS volume is scalping, just based on what I'm reading on traders' websites.... and doing....

[ogm]

Its the volume that I'm questioning.

I would say that's some fast money which, in view of the volatility, may include several flips in one day by thousands of players.

Maybe some very big players.

Like me.

And some tiny chicken players.

Like me.

I think an awful lot of the SDS volume is scalping, just based on what I'm reading on traders' websites.... and doing....

So..... a lot of traders are prefering to scalp the SHORT funds, rather then LONG funds....
Once again.. why is the SHORT funds are popular, not the LONG funds.

I bet in 2000.. traders would be trying to scalp LONG funds ? See where I'm going with it ?

[vitaminm]

One one hand the chart looks ready to explode with massive positive divergences and momentum structure, even though its still yet to break through major resistance.


On the other hand, look at the volume..
these funds are a new alternative to Rydex. And from contrarian perspective huge volume over the past few days means that a lot of people are betting against the market here.

If you compare SSO or QLD ( the ultra long funds) they never got as much volume attention as short funds.
Even though volume exploded in them too, like it did across the board.... they still trade on more then 10 time !!! less volume.

If daily volume in SDS is 20-25 mil last few days..... SSO daily is about 1.5-2 mil

Is that contrarian ? Question yet to be answered.

http://etf.seekingal...m/article/22594

[kaiser soze]

Liquidity feeds on itself. QID started out being more liquid than QLD because the ability to go short is more unique than the ability to go long (you can go long individual stocks, several specialty ETFs, etc). Now even if you want to go long, the ultrashort fund is more liquid (the bid-ask spreads are smaller) so you just short it instead of going long the ultralong ETF. This behavior creates even more liquidity for the short ETF-thus creating a virtuous cycle of steadily rising volume.