...the disturbance will become a tropical storm over the next few days. Chances of that are probably in the 70-80 percent range. The more rapid current movement means that a westerly track is likely for the next 3-5 days. This would take the system into the northeast Caribbean Sea as early as Thursday evening... Beyond that point we have little confidence in the long range track. However, it could reach either the northwest Caribbean Sea or the western Bahamas as early as Monday, August 20th. We just aren't sure whether it'll move toward the Gulf of Mexico or the east U.S. Coast this far out.
...early model guidance suggests that it could become at least a strong tropical storm before reaching the eastern Caribbean late next week. Some models even predict a Category 2 hurricane in 4 days with winds over 100 mph. But it's likely the models aren't taking into consideration the current problems with low-level wind shear. The faster forward speed should hamper development at least for a few days.
