Aire
Nice call on the 4.5 yr cycle! Cycles rule.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYH...id=p68926463211
-0.30 beat the 9/11 and July 2002 lows. Everybody pretty much threw the baby out with the bath water the last couple of weeks. They'll regret it later for sure.
COT, STEM model and Pitbull all still hugely bullish here too.
Huge investment opp staring everybody in the face right now. Many will once again miss it, pretty much guaranteed they will repeat the same mistakes made at all prior major lows.
Tick tock!
Vector,
I posted an update of your indicator on the 18th. There is a chart of the 1998 extreme and of the longterm oversold readings from this indicator. http://www.traders-t...?...c=75012&hl=
Airdale,
Thanks for posting, you are one of the best around in my opinion.
I do not follow cycles or Hurst as closely as you. Question? could we see a lower low in the latter half of the year without invalidating this analysis? If we saw -10%+ lower than this low would that change anything?
My guess is that it wouldn't necessarily change the "cyclic" structure.
Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
C,
caduceus, a -10%+ lower low later in the year would indicate my work is in error unless it could be obviously attributed to some sudden bad news affecting the whole market. a nominal 10 wk cycle low is due in oct, a nominal 20 wk low in december. neither should take out the current low.
Aire
Nice call on the 4.5 yr cycle! Cycles rule.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYH...id=p68926463211
-0.30 beat the 9/11 and July 2002 lows. Everybody pretty much threw the baby out with the bath water the last couple of weeks. They'll regret it later for sure.
COT, STEM model and Pitbull all still hugely bullish here too.
Huge investment opp staring everybody in the face right now. Many will once again miss it, pretty much guaranteed they will repeat the same mistakes made at all prior major lows.
Tick tock!
Vector,
I posted an update of your indicator on the 18th. There is a chart of the 1998 extreme and of the longterm oversold readings from this indicator. http://www.traders-t...?...c=75012&hl=
Airdale,
Thanks for posting, you are one of the best around in my opinion.
I do not follow cycles or Hurst as closely as you. Question? could we see a lower low in the latter half of the year without invalidating this analysis? If we saw -10%+ lower than this low would that change anything?
My guess is that it wouldn't necessarily change the "cyclic" structure.
Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
C,
caduceus, a -10%+ lower low later in the year would indicate my work is in error unless it could be obviously attributed to some sudden bad news affecting the whole market. a nominal 10 wk cycle low is due in oct, a nominal 20 wk low in december. neither should take out the current low.
SPX envelope chart.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p23242174874&r=1933.png
