17 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

I was uninvolved in the market this week as I had planned, I could see what the boyz had in mind on and they performed as expected, whipsawing bulls and bears alike on light volume... As you can see from the chart, there was NO VOLUME all week this week and the dreaded JAWS pattern has emerged on the Nasdaq volume/price comparison. Next week volume will return and we're going down town SMARTLY IMO ... whether or not Tuesday is up... This does not take a PhD to understand... effecitively all credit is now being sucked into debt service... you can forget all fantasies of growth in the economy. No... J6P does not feel it yet... but at the end of the quarter in 30 days when a few banks close for at least a few days (which means the credit cards at the other end of those banks seize up) he'll start freaking out. I expect the real crash to start then, around the first 2 weeks of October... I have already issued my target 1889. You may think I'm nuts, but I call them the way I see them.. As you can easily see from here the dissonence between volume and price opens into an alligator size set of jaws... those baby's are about to snap shut... I expect it to be VIOLENT !!


And as far as anyone who has any additional fantasies about this low of 8/16 standing... all you need to kow is that the 2/26 volume low was tested on almost 10% MORE Volume.... those get tested.. END OF STORY...

Edited by SemiBizz, 01 September 2007 - 12:30 PM.

[SemiBizz]

You know hasn't been that long since we had the discussion on TT over whether low volume rallies were bullish or bearish... Now what's the difference this time? The last time, everyone was looking for a top as we were trading at all-time highs on the S&P and Dow... but let me tell you this, there is no difference... low volume rallies are ALWAYS BEARISH... as was proved out by the July/August mini-crash. Inquiring minds are looking for bottoms... therefore they forget the logic they used to support their reasoning for a top... That's why I like using dynamic volume analysis, the rules apply whether you are coming off a trend or making a countertrend move... and BTW bottom-pickers, Nasdaq daily trend still points squarely DOWN. I'm sticking my neck out again here but I say the 8/16 low will be tested before any new high is made... and that's just the first step.

Edited by SemiBizz, 01 September 2007 - 06:00 PM.

[ogm]

August 2004 ... May 2005 ... August 2006 ... August 2007 ? Notice a pattern here ?

Edited by ogm, 01 September 2007 - 06:17 PM.

[SemiBizz]

This is how the board voted in the poll I authored:

Technicals are Important Short Term - But Fundamentals Rule in the Long Term [60.00%]

Oh and that's one more thing to add to a confirmed downtrend on the daily... fundamentals are crumbling. There's no way in hell you can convince me that $1/2 Trillion shortfall in commercial credit in the last 5 weeks, and the mark-to-market coming at the end of the quarter are bullish events for stock prices. The long term trend is Down and the fundamentals of the World Financial Markets are worse than at any time in most of our lifetimes, that includes 87, 98, 911, dotcom and all of them...

[ogm]

... The long term trend is Down and the fundamentals of the World Financial Markets are worse than at any time in most of our lifetimes, that includes 87, 98, 911, dotcom and all of them...

OK......

[ogm]

Just curious. How big of a hit to book value do you expect for the following companies... BAC, C, GS, MS, BSC ... Can you share your exact estimates on dollar value, or at least % from the current book value ?

[SemiBizz]

Just curious. How big of a hit to book value do you expect for the following companies...

BAC, C, GS, MS, BSC ... Can you share your exact estimates on dollar value, or at least % from the current book value ?

Don't you have better things to do?

[ogm]

Just curious. How big of a hit to book value do you expect for the following companies...

BAC, C, GS, MS, BSC ... Can you share your exact estimates on dollar value, or at least % from the current book value ?

Don't you have better things to do?

No...

But I'll answer that question for you.. You have absolutely no clue, but you expect is something big. HUGE. Earthshattering. How can it not be big, right ?

I think its you who needs to finds something better to do then to speculate about things you have no idea about.

By the way... I suspect those hits to book will be "better then expected" .. because just about anyone and his brother are already expecting that they will be HUGE without having a real clue.

What do you know about commercial paper, or global fundamentals ? Or 1000s of variables that drive the market ? Nothing.
You're engading into the end of the world fundamental speculation. Thats not usually a recipe for success.

Edited by ogm, 01 September 2007 - 07:13 PM.

[colion]

That's why I like using dynamic volume analysis

Semi, I understand the term "volume analysis" but what is "dynamic volume analysis?"



Thanks.

Edited by colion, 01 September 2007 - 07:26 PM.

[ogm]

Here is the chart of low volume rallies. Would love to hear Semi explain it. And looks like 2 out of 3 of them took place in August, despite supposedly horrible September seasonality. Well, looks like at least not in this market, Septembers aren't so bad.

From my perspective.. it says sellers are washed out but crowd is afraid to buy at first. Because they don't like some details. Or just plain scared. Expecting retest, confirmation, and what not. And when that confirmation comes volume kicks in at higher prices.

In current situation we had huge volume change hands at price levels below the current price. Heavy volume spikes are usualy signs of bottoms/tops. And now that the sellers are washed out the price has drifted up above that level. So all that heavy volume is now support.