17 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Just curious. How big of a hit to book value do you expect for the following companies...

BAC, C, GS, MS, BSC ... Can you share your exact estimates on dollar value, or at least % from the current book value ?

Don't you have better things to do?

No...

But I'll answer that question for you.. You have absolutely no clue, but you expect is something big. HUGE. Earthshattering. How can it not be big, right ?

I think its you who needs to finds something better to do then to speculate about things you have no idea about.

By the way... I suspect those hits to book will be "better then expected" .. because just about anyone and his brother are already expecting that they will be HUGE without having a real clue.

What do you know about commercial paper, or global fundamentals ? Or 1000s of variables that drive the market ? Nothing.
You're engading into the end of the world fundamental speculation. Thats not usually a recipe for success.

OK OGM, you will get no respect now and no answers so flake off... you are being ignored. [I just avoided being on moderation].

[ogm]

Just curious. How big of a hit to book value do you expect for the following companies...

BAC, C, GS, MS, BSC ... Can you share your exact estimates on dollar value, or at least % from the current book value ?

Don't you have better things to do?

No...

But I'll answer that question for you.. You have absolutely no clue, but you expect is something big. HUGE. Earthshattering. How can it not be big, right ?

I think its you who needs to finds something better to do then to speculate about things you have no idea about.

By the way... I suspect those hits to book will be "better then expected" .. because just about anyone and his brother are already expecting that they will be HUGE without having a real clue.

What do you know about commercial paper, or global fundamentals ? Or 1000s of variables that drive the market ? Nothing.
You're engading into the end of the world fundamental speculation. Thats not usually a recipe for success.

OK OGM, you will get no respect now and no answers so flake off... you are being ignored. [I just avoided being on moderation].

Good, cause I'm tired of reading BS about the end of the world fundamentals. Too bad you won't be able to explain that chart with those low volume rallies.

[rkd80]

Semi, There is another jaws of death out there and that refers to the bond market versus how they are behaving with the stocks. Wiliams often mentioned that a prolonged discrepancy leads to the jaws shutting down hard. HOWEVER, in our cases the bond market is suggesting that if the equity market has not bottomed yet, it will do very shortly. Bonds have rallied amazingly well and the 10 year yield has broken quite a few important support levels. Unless something is changing that I am not aware of, I will take the bond rally as a sign that hte market is in good shape overall.

[SemiBizz]

That's why I like using dynamic volume analysis

Semi, I understand the term "volume analysis" but what is "dynamic volume analysis?"

Thanks.

Analysis of volume at swing points .... There are lots of different types of volume analysis that are useless to me... Up Volume, Down Volume, Average Volume - meaningless...

[SemiBizz]

Semi,

There is another jaws of death out there and that refers to the bond market versus how they are behaving with the stocks. Wiliams often mentioned that a prolonged discrepancy leads to the jaws shutting down hard.

HOWEVER, in our cases the bond market is suggesting that if the equity market has not bottomed yet, it will do very shortly. Bonds have rallied amazingly well and the 10 year yield has broken quite a few important support levels. Unless something is changing that I am not aware of, I will take the bond rally as a sign that hte market is in good shape overall.

Yeah, bond market is probably responding to the Feds... but I don't think there's any guarantee they will do anything... and lowering the discount rate didn't really help much... except psychologically... History and the charts I have already presented on this site from 1/2001 already show what a reversal to a rate cut from a rate raising environment produce...about a month of rally and then a journey to new market lows... There's no growth model out there for us.. credit is shrinking, risk premiums are escalating and overall there's a crimp on lending and borrowing because the logic and psychology of it has changed... better known by stock hounds as "fundamentals"...

Overall it's not just the psychology of borrowing and lending... it's also the psychology of buying and selling. There are always going to be the folks who want to see a reversion to the mean... fully invested in the old model. That's not now new bull markets are born though. New bull markets are born out of bear markets, where buying and selling stocks is a "dirty" business... we are a long way from that now, except for the dirty business part... you know those darn AAA ... subprime instruments. Now there is the height of bullishness.... who in their right mind would buy a AAA "SubPrime" anything? So there are always some folks that are just going to buy anything, are butt-headed bulls... History has been kind to them recently. I've seen the fall before... from 1969 when the DJIA went from 1000 back to under 300. What were they rationalizing? Vietnam Wars, Presidential Scandals, Middle East Wars, Gas Prices, and inflation. The more things change the more they are the same...

There are new bull markets emerging in next-generation social computing and consumerized healthcare, for example... it's too soon to put your money there now...

Cash is King folks, you heard it here first. Good Luck Bottom Pickers!

Edited by SemiBizz, 01 September 2007 - 08:19 PM.

[VolPivots]

There's no way in hell you can convince me that $1/2 Trillion shortfall in commercial credit in the last 5 weeks, and the mark-to-market coming at the end of the quarter are bullish events for stock prices.

Hadn't considered or seen that.....but things might be berry interesting this qtr-end. CDO mark-downs of 50%+....how will the markets react?

[SemiBizz]

There's no way in hell you can convince me that $1/2 Trillion shortfall in commercial credit in the last 5 weeks, and the mark-to-market coming at the end of the quarter are bullish events for stock prices.

Hadn't considered or seen that.....but things might be berry interesting this qtr-end. CDO mark-downs of 50%+....how will the markets react?

You have to have a buyer that's willing to pay 50%... I"m not ready to step into one of those not even at 10%.

[maineman]

My advice to people today is as follows: If you take the game of life seriously, if you take your nervous system seriously, if you take your sense organs seriously, if you take the energy process seriously, you must turn on, tune in, and drop out.
-Timothy Leary

Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope.

-Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers


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