Liquidity Update
#1
Posted 03 September 2007 - 01:49 PM
#2
Posted 03 September 2007 - 03:12 PM
#3
Posted 03 September 2007 - 05:17 PM
I think differently.
There are 2 leaders.. Energy + large cap techs.
These aren't defensive sectors in nature. I think in this combination it means GROWTH.
Drop off in growth would've had energy going down, since the demand for energy is economicaly sensitive.
Here is a chart you might find interesting.... SPX vs FED's SOMA.
Notice the actual Fed's actions. They kept liquidity rather flat. Thats what caused the hiccup in the system.
As long as they pump, the system is fine and prices advance.
There is an article with that chart, but I think the guy who wrote it has completely misinterpreted everything
http://wallstreetexa.../winter/?p=1045
That article also includes the chart of a Baltic Dry index hitting all time highs. The demand for goods transportations is huge. Otherwise it wouldn't be there. Yes,t hat may be inflationary, but it also means growth.
#4
Posted 03 September 2007 - 05:47 PM
#5
Posted 03 September 2007 - 09:17 PM
#6
Posted 04 September 2007 - 04:03 AM
#7
Posted 04 September 2007 - 04:52 AM
Click on link; change date range block to 8-15-07: refresh chart in order to view.
http://research.stlo...2=Refresh Graph
#8
Posted 04 September 2007 - 05:58 AM
Thanks for the link. In ewave terms it looks like a terminal triangle....we just broke down through the lower TL of wedgeA shorter term view of the Feds activity also supports your view of a more liquid stance. While Total Bank Credit had been sliding downward for over a year...the current graph shows a double bottom and the start of a potential leg up.
Click on link; change date range block to 8-15-07: refresh chart in order to view.
http://research.stlo...2=Refresh Graph
#9
Posted 04 September 2007 - 06:22 AM
Thanks for the link. In ewave terms it looks like a terminal triangle....we just broke down through the lower TL of wedge
OMG Catastrophy ! TERMINAL Triangle. No less....
Care to overlay that chart on the S&P index ?
Edited by ogm, 04 September 2007 - 06:24 AM.
#10
Posted 04 September 2007 - 06:26 AM
i'm just still wondering how markets will react when fed does not lower rates at the meeting
disappoint and then rally as "things aren't so bad"
Why would you think that the Fed won't cut? The Fed fund futures, I'm told, are saying, with 90%+ certainty that the Fed will cut 0.25, and more later.
What do you think you're seeing that the smart guys who discount Fed actions aren't?
Mark S Young
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