20 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Why would you think that the Fed won't cut? The Fed fund futures, I'm told, are saying, with 90%+ certainty that the Fed will cut 0.25, and more later.

What do you think you're seeing that the smart guys who discount Fed actions aren't?

Fed fund futures guys are betting with 90+% certainty and our poll results are split 50/50.
Someone is bound to be wrong.


http://www.traders-t...showtopic=75588

[arbman]

If the credit growth rate indeed bottomed, this is what I would expect for the near term...

I would think the cycle lows would come in earlier than later, so these lows might shift left for a day or two...

I am thinking the market will continue to stay in a trading range for another 15 wks with upside bias after October.

The market should really take off after the next 20 wk cycle bottoms, it is roughly where the money supply growth bottoms and starts to rise again...

Edited by kisacik, 04 September 2007 - 06:46 AM.

[peregrine]

In ewave terms it looks like a terminal triangle....we just broke down through the lower TL of wedge

Though I didn't address it in the original post.....the EWAVE count of Bank Credit looks as though it has just concluded a fourth wave of some degree...with a fifth up now underway, but not necessarily...the final fifth wave.

[humble1]

my blab: i cannot imagine the fed NOT cutting rates, though i know some observers have doubts and think it all depends on econ stats between now and then. maybe so. but this is a good time (once again) to remind the bulls, who salivate at a rate cut (or two or three or four), that cut cycles didn't do much for the spx when it chopped off 50% (2000-2002). and the rate hike cycle didn't stop the great B-wave rally from poking the old 3/24/00 high. so, are you SURE cuts are what you wish for ?

Edited by humble1, 04 September 2007 - 12:45 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

This ain't 2000, 2001, or 2002. There are lots of fairly cheap stocks out there. The market and the economy are under pressure and the FF rate is simply too high for the current conditions. Clearly. So, they should cut. Best not to make a bad situation worse. But it will be bullish, in general. Unlike 2001, excess liquidity won't be flowing into real estate. Mark

[arbman]

Honestly, the rate cuts are not absolutely necessary yet, it all depends on what kind of a bubble you are wishing for next, but the rate cuts will do. I think the risks are to the upside after October, but the tech is already going up vertical... BTW, at this rate, the rally will price in any rate cut before they happen, not very unusual if it happens, the market usually sells off after the first rate cut, but there is probably not much downside for the rates, most likely 0.75% or 3 x 0.25%...

Edited by kisacik, 04 September 2007 - 01:10 PM.

[arbman]

Today, SPX broke the 10 wk FLD to the upside targeting the 1530 area by Oct or so. I would think a pull back into the 5wk cycle low around FOMC is still a buy until the first week of Sep unless the market goes to the 1530 straight up, since I believe this would set up a short term left translated cycle (bearish)...

[LeroyB3]

Could you explain what the lines are and a bit about it?

1, 2.

Thanks.

LB

[arbman]

The biggest divergence I see here is the lack of new highs on Nasdaq stocks despite the strong rally there, it is really low despite the index almost making new highs...

[Echo]

Kisa, what are you using for the last 5wk cycle low? Echo