20 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Echo, most of the sectors made new lows on Aug 15th, although the financials only double bottomed... My observation about the cycle straddle is they happen as the short term cycles (< 20 wks) become shorter as the liquidity increases and they usually expand as the major cycles bottom (>= 20 wk). The changes on the cycle periods are also an indication of the changes in the liquidity. The prices will not sustain the longer cyclical periods at the same prices, similarly the prices will quickly move higher with the shorter cyclical periods at the same prices (compared to its previous state there). This is simply due to the spectral energy, or activity of the participants, around a price level. This is very quantic, btw, it is like the electrons spinning at different rates around the protons at different energy levels. The jumps from one activity level (support/resistance) to the next does not have to obey a Gaussian distribution for the same reason, imho. That's why I observed that the short term cycles are not very predictive of the longer term cycle phasing other than their slight changes in their periods ahead of the trend changes. The ST cycles were getting longer since early July. So, I would focus at most one minor cycle to estimate the changes in a major cycle, but not rely on the timing of the ST cycles for the phasing. Hurst also recommends the same (examining the cycles of their own)... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 04 September 2007 - 11:00 PM.