14 replies to this topic

[no_mind]

I see a retracement from the H&S breakout

I see it too, but don't like how it's doing it on higher volume. If you haven't seen it already, take a look at Alpha Trends Friday market review; he's always good for an objective look at the markets.

[hadman]

I see a retracement from the H&S breakout

I see it too, but don't like how it's doing it on higher volume. If you haven't seen it already, take a look at Alpha Trends Friday market review; he's always good for an objective look at the markets.

Thanks. I follow his blog on pretty regular basis and hes the one that got me into tech analysis a few months ago.

[NAV]

Why not get a head start by trading minis in globex?

Globex is excellent if you swing trade without leverage. Some of the best positioning opportunities arise in the globex session. But you need wide stops, at least 10 points or more. Otherwise, you are food for the nocturnal operators. In this volatile market, you may need even more wider stops.

If you are doing day trading (rather night trading) in globex session, it's like watching the paint dry. It's too slow and not worth your time. It's time better spent with your family. Plus if you become a tape junkie like that, you won't have the focus or the energy levels to properly trade during the regular session. Been there, done that. No, not interested. There are plenty of opportunities in the day session. Anyway, it's not prudent to change your strategy, based on temporary market conditions. I can wait without trades for days, if they don't meet my parameters. Most profitable traders become breakeven traders by taking bad trades. My goal is to avoid those bad trades.

NAV, by any chance is your gap-up signature influenced by what seems to have been a rather obvious short covering rally (in the futures) in the last minutes of trading or do you disregard the futures? Just trying to understand what you're looking at and make sure that "signature" isn't a forgery

I am not influenced by anything. I am flat and it's an unbiased read of my indicators. Was there any indication based purely on price action, that there would be a gap-down today? Most folks were screaming gap-up and scorch today, while my indicators correctly called for a gap-down.

Edited by NAV, 07 September 2007 - 11:49 PM.

[Echo]

weekly, FWIW

Another perspective on the same chart:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p16217611206&a=72569959&r=9878.png



On the way down, we saw lower highs and lower lows. Now for the last 3 weeks, we see higher highs and higher lows. Not unusual to have the 20wk ma be resistance on the way up, just as the 50wk ma should now provide support. Note that we have not closed below the 50wk ma and the 80wk ma provided intraday support on Aug 16th.

This week we set a higher high, and after a 126 point upswing from the lows in 12 trading days (avg 10 spx points a day), we just completed a snapback to the .382 retracement. Underneath this week's close at 1453.55, you've got nearby support at the same retrace at 1448.5 and Ted's line at 1447. Should further downside be in the cards, the .50 retrace at 1433.6, and strong support at 1430-32 are within 20 points away.

Couple that with the breadth initiation thrusts we've seen, the position of the Hurst cycles, the behaviour of the AD line, and I've got to think that at this point you have to play this from the bullish side. Just IMHO.

Echo

[OEXCHAOS]

I see a retracement from the H&S breakout

I see it too, but don't like how it's doing it on higher volume. If you haven't seen it already, take a look at Alpha Trends Friday market review; he's always good for an objective look at the markets.

Thanks. I follow his blog on pretty regular basis and hes the one that got me into tech analysis a few months ago.

Welcome, hadman.

I think you've come to the right place. Peruse the Investors U. area, and read. In a little bit you'll be amazed at how much you pick up here. I've been at this for a quarter century now and I still regularly learn something or pick up a tip or get a great heads up from this crew.

Mark
(founder, Traders-talk.com)