cycles
#1
Posted 21 September 2007 - 06:20 AM
it's early in a brand new 4.5 yr cycle bull market. the typical wall of worry will keep most out for now.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Posted 21 September 2007 - 07:04 AM
#3
Posted 21 September 2007 - 07:35 AM
#4
Posted 21 September 2007 - 08:07 AM
#5
Posted 21 September 2007 - 08:33 AM
#6
Posted 21 September 2007 - 10:36 AM
#7
Posted 21 September 2007 - 11:28 AM
#8
Posted 21 September 2007 - 12:47 PM
Look who is here... I hope you didn't lose too much on the capitalstool advice, bro...
P.S. Something from my studies agrees with Airedale. I wish him good luck. Thanks Air.
If the rumors are correct Lee banned wyndy for being to bullish, sigh.
#9
Posted 21 September 2007 - 01:21 PM
airedale,
do you see any possibility that due to foreigners liquidating/reducing their stock market investments due to a falling US dollar, your forecast could turn out less bullish if not even turn into a sideways move?
I am having in the back of my mind the fact that people talk already about Bernanke lowering interest rates again, which is bad for the dollar and might urge more and more foreigners to leave the US stock market.
thanks, gis
gis, no. the work is basec on cyclic analysis, not fundamentals or what people or foreigners might do if this or that happens. remember the "wall of worry".
Edited by airedale88, 21 September 2007 - 01:22 PM.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#10
Posted 21 September 2007 - 01:50 PM
it's early in a brand new 4.5 yr cycle bull market. the typical wall of worry will keep most out for now.
Need to have a counter to that.
Not only is the 4 or 4.5 year cycle low not in, but certainly by no measure in history has a new bull market ever been born out of a set up as we have now. Neither sentiment -- wave sturcture -- price action -- valuation or any metric one can use to measure a bear market bottom has been even approached.
A generational top has been put in in July and while some averages might attempt to double top it its very early yet in the liquidation phase. The FED can lower rates to minus 5 % and it wont stop the eventual liqudation that by nature will need to take place before any new bull market can be thought about.
In my view prudence and sanity will keep the few wise ones out (long term holders that is as opposed to traders who go in and out) -- the majority though have been brainwashed by the media not to ever sell.