18 replies to this topic

[relax]

"the majority though have been brainwashed by the media not to ever sell" that's a good one!

[airedale88]

it's early in a brand new 4.5 yr cycle bull market. the typical wall of worry will keep most out for now.

Need to have a counter to that.



Not only is the 4 or 4.5 year cycle low not in, ............

editing out the rest of your reply, all of which had nothing to do with cyclic analysis, tell me what you think is the status of a "4 or 4.5 yr" cycle and it's next low if it has not bottomed..

[Russ]

Airedale88: Do you think the spx can go up into next friday, sept.28? I am seeing that that could happen on some of my charts.

[airedale88]

Airedale88:

Do you think the spx can go up into next friday, sept.28? I am seeing that that could happen on some of my charts.

russ, the resolution of the short term daily cycles remains a bit mixed. i think we get a 2.5 wk cycle low from early to mid next week, then up again after that. will hafta watch it day to day.

[bullishnot]

it's early in a brand new 4.5 yr cycle bull market. the typical wall of worry will keep most out for now.

Need to have a counter to that.



Not only is the 4 or 4.5 year cycle low not in, but certainly by no measure in history has a new bull market ever been born out of a set up as we have now. Neither sentiment -- wave sturcture -- price action -- valuation or any metric one can use to measure a bear market bottom has been even approached.



A generational top has been put in in July and while some averages might attempt to double top it its very early yet in the liquidation phase. The FED can lower rates to minus 5 % and it wont stop the eventual liqudation that by nature will need to take place before any new bull market can be thought about.



In my view prudence and sanity will keep the few wise ones out (long term holders that is as opposed to traders who go in and out) -- the majority though have been brainwashed by the media not to ever sell.

I agree, everybody thinks there is no where to go but up. LOL Down in a hurry, soon.

[Russ]

Airedale88:

Do you think the spx can go up into next friday, sept.28? I am seeing that that could happen on some of my charts.

russ, the resolution of the short term daily cycles remains a bit mixed. i think we get a 2.5 wk cycle low from early to mid next week, then up again after that. will hafta watch it day to day.

Ok. I am also seeing November 8th as a major low for the markets...which is showing up as a major high for the vix.

[Vector]

My portfolio has argued with you in the past and has been severely bloodied. Now I have become a believer. Lee Addler aka Doc on capitalstool claims to use Hurst cycles but you seem to have a far superior understanding of them. Please keep up the posts.

I caught onto Lee's BIASED antics way back in 2003 and said to myself enough is enough, if I keep listening to this guy I'll be living in a van down by the river. Even when he analyzed the cycles to be pointing up he'd always downplay it and stay bearish. Like clockwork. That was a time to say "see ya!", and I did.

That's what happens when you look at the world thru S@#T colored glasses all the time

My IRA's have nearly doubled since 2004.

All my stuff right now implies an acceleration to the upside lies dead ahead. One we haven't seen in years.

Edited by Vector, 21 September 2007 - 07:56 PM.

[Tor]

it's early in a brand new 4.5 yr cycle bull market. the typical wall of worry will keep most out for now.

Need to have a counter to that.



Not only is the 4 or 4.5 year cycle low not in, but certainly by no measure in history has a new bull market ever been born out of a set up as we have now. Neither sentiment -- wave sturcture -- price action -- valuation or any metric one can use to measure a bear market bottom has been even approached.



A generational top has been put in in July and while some averages might attempt to double top it its very early yet in the liquidation phase. The FED can lower rates to minus 5 % and it wont stop the eventual liqudation that by nature will need to take place before any new bull market can be thought about.



In my view prudence and sanity will keep the few wise ones out (long term holders that is as opposed to traders who go in and out) -- the majority though have been brainwashed by the media not to ever sell.

its either wave three down or wave three up.pick ur poison.

[Russ]

Airedale, I am recanting my previous statement, the vix signal may be inverting and the other signals look like they are correct, especially with multiple charts showing the same trends with the high for this current rally coming in early November. November 5th is what I am seeing on the Transports, some of the other indexes look like they will peak the same week, maybe 2 or 3 days later. I have been reading about JM Hurst - Rocket Scientist! He was quite a guy, do you like the book JM Hurst Cycle Trading without the Rocket Math? Or do you prefer another book or course on his methods? Tnx.

Edited by Russ, 22 September 2007 - 10:44 PM.