18 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

i updated the SPX nominal 10 wk price projection chart i posted on 9/17. i've sketched in the nominal 20 wk cycle fld on the upper right of the chart. i expect SPX to reach the highest of the three 10 wk cycle projections i marked and in doing that the nominal 20 wk fld will be crossed and give a projection. a rough estimate would be anywhere from around 1670 to over 1700 before the 20 wk low of late december.

it's early in a brand new 4.5 yr cycle bull market. the typical wall of worry will keep most out for now.

[bobalou]

thank god you have big one's good calls... w/ a rate cut,I have seen,in 9 weeks later, we have a high . do you have a high 9 weeks from now ?? thx

[mortiz]

Aire, It is always refreshing to see different TA methodologies pointing in the same direction. The money flow behavior both prior to the correction and since the August bottom are all pointing to much higher prices going forward. And as you have implied, the focus on fundamentals and overbought indicators will keep many out of the long side for several weeks, maybe several months. As always, thanks for sharing your work. Randy

[Cirrus]

airedale88, Thanks...I look forward to reading your posts and greatly appreciate you sharing your work. I'm not sure where things are going but if we are beginning a 4.5 yr upphase, which is definitely a possibility, I think precious metals, energy and other basic materials lead. My gut says the broad market goes up into January. I'll be watching breadth within various groups to see where we're at. Nothing but a gut feel for now.

[blackprince]

My portfolio has argued with you in the past and has been severely bloodied. Now I have become a believer. Lee Addler aka Doc on capitalstool claims to use Hurst cycles but you seem to have a far superior understanding of them. Please keep up the posts.

[youmast]

Look who is here... I hope you didn't lose too much on the capitalstool advice, bro... P.S. Something from my studies agrees with Airedale. I wish him good luck. Thanks Air.

[gismeu]

airedale, do you see any possibility that due to foreigners liquidating/reducing their stock market investments due to a falling US dollar, your forecast could turn out less bullish if not even turn into a sideways move? I am having in the back of my mind the fact that people talk already about Bernanke lowering interest rates again, which is bad for the dollar and might urge more and more foreigners to leave the US stock market. thanks, gis

[blackprince]

Look who is here... I hope you didn't lose too much on the capitalstool advice, bro...

P.S. Something from my studies agrees with Airedale. I wish him good luck. Thanks Air.

If the rumors are correct Lee banned wyndy for being to bullish, sigh.

[airedale88]

airedale,

do you see any possibility that due to foreigners liquidating/reducing their stock market investments due to a falling US dollar, your forecast could turn out less bullish if not even turn into a sideways move?
I am having in the back of my mind the fact that people talk already about Bernanke lowering interest rates again, which is bad for the dollar and might urge more and more foreigners to leave the US stock market.

thanks, gis

gis, no. the work is basec on cyclic analysis, not fundamentals or what people or foreigners might do if this or that happens. remember the "wall of worry".

Edited by airedale88, 21 September 2007 - 01:22 PM.

[zedor]

it's early in a brand new 4.5 yr cycle bull market. the typical wall of worry will keep most out for now.

Need to have a counter to that.



Not only is the 4 or 4.5 year cycle low not in, but certainly by no measure in history has a new bull market ever been born out of a set up as we have now. Neither sentiment -- wave sturcture -- price action -- valuation or any metric one can use to measure a bear market bottom has been even approached.



A generational top has been put in in July and while some averages might attempt to double top it its very early yet in the liquidation phase. The FED can lower rates to minus 5 % and it wont stop the eventual liqudation that by nature will need to take place before any new bull market can be thought about.



In my view prudence and sanity will keep the few wise ones out (long term holders that is as opposed to traders who go in and out) -- the majority though have been brainwashed by the media not to ever sell.