4 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Airedale's post below points to a possible top of 1670-1700 "before the 20 wk low of late December."
Sentiment looks supportive.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 September 2007 - 12:26 PM.

[n83]

appears only thing reliable is bulls going to 40% or close to it for lows the bears were low from '03-'05..did not mean a thing for market tops..neither did high no. of bulls for mkt tops..neither did high no. of bears for mkt bottoms (if coupling w low bulls, maybe yes)

[Rogerdodger]

Well, I see neutral sentiment, improving from low levels.
This tends to be bullish.

That alone does NOT MEAN ANYTHING, but put in context with Airedale's cycle work, it shows lots of room above.





Look at how neutral this has been for 2 years:
Current sentiment, which has seen a 200 point SPX advance, is closer to 2002-2003 (4 1/2 years ago...think cycle)
with it's 300 point drop!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 September 2007 - 03:51 PM.

[arbman]

Well apparently it is the wrong estimate.

[Rogerdodger]

Amazing!
Since the August lows, the AAII Sentiment has only risen 7 points to 55 this week!
48% Week of August lows
49
47
48
53
55% this week