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ALCOA Earnings Calamity


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#1 linrom1

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Posted 09 October 2007 - 11:19 PM

I have no idea what it is about Alcoa, but, I am---as it appears, frequently forced to report about the shenanigans that is going on in this company. First, it was the rumors of bogus buyouts and now very misleading reporting of its quarterly earnings performance.

While news headlines proclaim that Alcoa earned Income from continuing operations of $558 million, or $0.64 per share, a three percent increase from a year ago, those earnings include proceed from sale of its Chinese CHALCO holdings for about $1.8 billion. Had this sale not been included, Alcoa would have an operating LOSS of $18 million. Without the sale of its Chinese stake, Alcoa LOST $-0.01 per share compared to earnings of $0.62 last year. The gain on asset sales was $0.65 per share.

One has to wonder what was it that had motivated Alcoa in the first place to sell CHALCO in the fastest growing region of the world with surging aluminum demand that is reputedly growing at 37%. It could not possibly be an attempt to head off what is an earnings calamity--could it?"

In its earning disclosure, Alcoa also reveals a stunner that it operations were hurt by lower dollar! Isn't lower dollar supposed to benefit large corporations ---that is, increased foreign sales and currency translation gains! Not if you are a large U.S corporation that outsourced its manufacturing overseas---yeah, it's poetic justice.

Tomorrow, fund managers will pull that BUY button while holding their noses high.

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#2 Drano

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 02:39 AM

Brilliant, Lin. thanks.

#3 ...

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 07:38 AM

Alcoa LOST $-0.01 per share


Pure, unadulterated, absolute and total horsepuckey.

An operation which has been sold isn't included under ANY circumstances in results from continuing operations. Not even by the most boneheaded or dishonest accountant or auditor.

Any auditor or corporate officer who signed off on such a ridiculous, easily detectable deception would be exposing himself to up to 20 years in federal prison under Sarbanes-Oxley.

Even funnier when considering this ludicrous claim is the fact that the Chalco shares were held by Alcoa as an INVESTMENT. They originally owned 8% of Chalco and about 7% when they sold it.

Chalco was NEVER included in Alcoa's operating results, nor could it EVER be included under any theory of GAAP-compliant accounting.

To further demonstrate just how ridiculous the claim is, here are the operating results in terms of after tax operating income from continuing operations by segment from the earnings press release (in millions):

Alumina: $215
Primary Metals: $283
Flat-Rolled Products: $61
Extruded/End Products: $13
Engineered Solutions: $60
Packaging/Consumer: $36

That's $668 million of earnings from continuing operations. Before deducting miscellaneous general corporate expenses of $34 million and minority participation interests of $79 million.

Which leaves net after-tax income of $555 million, or 64 cents per share, which is what they reported.

If Alcoa had included the one-time gain of $1.8 billion as GAAP earnings, their earnings would have been about $2.67 per share.

I don't know if the original poster wrote this junk or plagiarized it, but whoever wrote it doesn't have the faintest first clue about Alcoa, Chalco, GAAP, Sarbox or accounting in general.

The gain on asset sales was $0.65 per share.


Isn't it fun to beat a dead horse?

To further illustrate the innumeracy of this lunacy, start with the fact that Alcoa has about 900 million shares outstanding.

Their net gain on Chalco was $1.8 billion and they didn't realize any other gains of any consequence.

The gain on asset sales was about 2 bucks a share, not 65 cents.

One has to wonder what was it that had motivated Alcoa in the first place to sell CHALCO in the fastest growing region of the world with surging aluminum demand that is reputedly growing at 37%. It could not possibly be an attempt to head off what is an earnings calamity--could it?


Well, no, it couldn't. And one doesn't have to wonder anything.

Alcoa sold their interest because their plan to do a joint smelting/refining venture with Chalco at Pingguo didn't work out.

Those guys at Alcoa are really dumb, aren't they?

They realized a profit of about 13 times their investment for lending their good name as a primary investor to Chalco to help them to float their IPO. Now they've got $2 billion to invest elsewhere, for instance, in joint ventures with CITIC, as they have already done.

Then we have silly accounting conspiracy theories propounded by people of unknown provenance.

Reality is more useful.

Disclaimer: I don't currently own AA (I have often in the past,) but I think I may buy some soon. I've been eyeing the chart for the last couple of weeks. The $39 area looks about right for a hold for 6 months or so.

#4 linrom1

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 08:24 AM

Alcoa LOST $-0.01 per share


Pure, unadulterated, absolute and total horsepuckey.

An operation which has been sold isn't included under ANY circumstances in results from continuing operations. Not even by the most boneheaded or dishonest accountant or auditor.

Any auditor or corporate officer who signed off on such a ridiculous, easily detectable deception would be exposing himself to up to 20 years in federal prison under Sarbanes-Oxley.

Even funnier when considering this ludicrous claim is the fact that the Chalco shares were held by Alcoa as an INVESTMENT. They originally owned 8% of Chalco and about 7% when they sold it.

Chalco was NEVER included in Alcoa's operating results, nor could it EVER be included under any theory of GAAP-compliant accounting.

To further demonstrate just how ridiculous the claim is, here are the operating results in terms of after tax operating income from continuing operations by segment from the earnings press release (in millions):

Alumina: $215
Primary Metals: $283
Flat-Rolled Products: $61
Extruded/End Products: $13
Engineered Solutions: $60
Packaging/Consumer: $36

That's $668 million of earnings from continuing operations. Before deducting miscellaneous general corporate expenses of $34 million and minority participation interests of $79 million.

Which leaves net after-tax income of $555 million, or 64 cents per share, which is what they reported.

If Alcoa had included the one-time gain of $1.8 billion as GAAP earnings, their earnings would have been about $2.67 per share.

I don't know if the original poster wrote this junk or plagiarized it, but whoever wrote it doesn't have the faintest first clue about Alcoa, Chalco, GAAP, Sarbox or accounting in general.

The gain on asset sales was $0.65 per share.


Isn't it fun to beat a dead horse?

To further illustrate the innumeracy of this lunacy, start with the fact that Alcoa has about 900 million shares outstanding.

Their net gain on Chalco was $1.8 billion and they didn't realize any other gains of any consequence.

The gain on asset sales was about 2 bucks a share, not 65 cents.

One has to wonder what was it that had motivated Alcoa in the first place to sell CHALCO in the fastest growing region of the world with surging aluminum demand that is reputedly growing at 37%. It could not possibly be an attempt to head off what is an earnings calamity--could it?


Well, no, it couldn't. And one doesn't have to wonder anything.

Alcoa sold their interest because their plan to do a joint smelting/refining venture with Chalco at Pingguo didn't work out.

Those guys at Alcoa are really dumb, aren't they?

They realized a profit of about 13 times their investment for lending their good name as a primary investor to Chalco to help them to float their IPO. Now they've got $2 billion to invest elsewhere, for instance, in joint ventures with CITIC, as they have already done.

Then we have silly accounting conspiracy theories propounded by people of unknown provenance.

Reality is more useful.

Disclaimer: I don't currently own AA (I have often in the past,) but I think I may buy some soon. I've been eyeing the chart for the last couple of weeks. The $39 area looks about right for a hold for 6 months or so.


Alcoa had after tax gain of $1.7 billion on this sale; when you add in provision for income taxes of $1.1 billion you get $0.65 per share.

The gain on this sale shows in Other Income. You can slice and dice these numbers anyway you want, but, Alcoa's Net Income of $555 includes gain on its Chalco sale of $1.7 billion.

I agree most accounting is silly and Alcoa is an Investment Bank.

Edited by linrom1, 10 October 2007 - 08:31 AM.


#5 ...

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 10:55 AM

Alcoa's Net Income of $555 includes gain on its Chalco sale of $1.7 billion.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

That must be why AA is down 10 or 20 bucks, right?

Oh, wait, the earnings were a slight disappointment, .64 versus .65 expected, so it's down 50 cents.

Did you not read the lengthy and irrefutable details of why you (or whoever wrote the trash you posted) have no clue? Do you just make this totally stupid stuff up as you went along or did you plagiarize it?

I note that you also posted this idiotic nonsense at Capital Poo and that none of the geniuses over there got far enough through the fog of baloney to even comment. When you can't even get those idiots to high-five you, you're in serious trouble.

Your post remains totally debunked junk. It ain't just me that says so, the market says so.

#6 linrom1

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 11:27 AM

"If Alcoa had included the one-time gain of $1.8 billion as GAAP earnings, their earnings would have been about $2.67 per share." You don't know what you are talking about--- that's is what you wrote! :lol: :lol: Learn how to read and interpret financial statements.

#7 ...

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 12:23 PM

If Alcoa had included the one-time gain of $1.8 billion as GAAP earnings, their earnings would have been about $2.67 per share


Yup, that's exactly what I wrote, because it's a fact. But they can't do that, nice as it may look on the income statement. Alas, it was just a nice contribution to the balance sheet.

The gain you think they included in income is only in your mind, or the mind of whoever you plagiarized.

Either way, you really ARE clueless. Nice to see that you have admitted defeat by your succession of baseless statements. Let me know when you have something substantive to say about any of the details I provided to refute your ridiculous dreck.

#8 linrom1

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 12:49 PM

If Alcoa had included the one-time gain of $1.8 billion as GAAP earnings, their earnings would have been about $2.67 per share


Yup, that's exactly what I wrote, because it's a fact. But they can't do that, nice as it may look on the income statement. Alas, it was just a nice contribution to the balance sheet.

The gain you think they included in income is only in your mind, or the mind of whoever you plagiarized.

Either way, you really ARE clueless. Nice to see that you have admitted defeat by your succession of baseless statements. Let me know when you have something substantive to say about any of the details I provided to refute your ridiculous dreck.


First, I wrote this. Secondly, what are you refuting: that Alcoa sold an asset and failed to book it. :lol

Finally, stop reading Capitalstool message board, as that seems to set you off.

#9 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 01:02 PM

Gentlemen... Act like it. I'd like to see more civility. M

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#10 ...

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 04:02 PM

I wrote this.


Good that you admit to it. We now have a much better idea of where you're coming from. Appears to me to be somewhere around tin-foil central. Is that near Capital Poo?

what are you refuting


Did I somehow not make myself clear?

I refuted your totally silly, ridiculous conspiracy theory of AA earnings. The market has done likewise.

I did it in copious detail above, to which you have had exactly zero substantive response. I won't wait for you to get around to it, mainly because there is none.

stop reading Capitalstool message board


Why? They're hilarious. Watching people capitulate or be banned over the last 5 years has been highly amusing. Dr. Poo should probably charge for the site's comic value.

I'm sorry, Mark, that's about as civil as I can be to someone who propounds (and he admits that he wrote it) absolute and total horsepuckey.