25 replies to this topic

[NAV]

There's a whole lot of emotional posts on this board in the last few days. I haven't heard anyone mention the technical failure on the DOW in the VST. Again IT bulls, i am not talking to you folks. The trend is still on your side. The consolidation on the DOW between 10/1 and 10/9 resulted in a fake breakout on the Fed minutes day. We had a severe breakout failure yesterday. That means we are headed lower, plain and simple. The 120-min momentum is also on a sell at this point. That means a 80% odds we are headed lower. I would expect a drop of 30-40 SPX points here. After that, who knows.... Now if we get a strong rally and take out the 10/9 highs, that would be something - a failure of a breakout failure. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in the VST is to the downside.

[atlasshrugged]

There's a whole lot of emotional posts on this board in the last few days. I haven't heard anyone mention the technical failure on the DOW in the VST. Again IT bulls, i am not talking to you folks. The trend is still on your side.

The consolidation on the DOW between 10/1 and 10/9 resulted in a fake breakout on the Fed minutes day. We had a severe breakout failure yesterday. That means we are headed lower, plain and simple. The 120-min momentum is also on a sell at this point. That means a 80% odds we are headed lower. I would expect a drop of 30-40 SPX points here. After that, who knows....

Now if we get a strong rally and take out the 10/9 highs, that would be something - a failure of a breakout failure. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in the VST is to the downside.

who cares about the dow? the spx and nyse both of which are more indicative of the broader mkt didnt display technical failures...and the ndx is a freight train....

[NAV]

There's a whole lot of emotional posts on this board in the last few days. I haven't heard anyone mention the technical failure on the DOW in the VST. Again IT bulls, i am not talking to you folks. The trend is still on your side.

The consolidation on the DOW between 10/1 and 10/9 resulted in a fake breakout on the Fed minutes day. We had a severe breakout failure yesterday. That means we are headed lower, plain and simple. The 120-min momentum is also on a sell at this point. That means a 80% odds we are headed lower. I would expect a drop of 30-40 SPX points here. After that, who knows....

Now if we get a strong rally and take out the 10/9 highs, that would be something - a failure of a breakout failure. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in the VST is to the downside.

who cares about the dow? the spx and nyse both of which are more indicative of the broader mkt didnt display technical failures...and the ndx is a freight train....

Marginal highs on SPX and NDX tommorow morning and then..... JMO

DOW is the leader and has been since 2003. But then, everyone thinks Nasdaq is the leader for some reason.

Edited by NAV, 11 October 2007 - 01:00 AM.

[atlasshrugged]

There's a whole lot of emotional posts on this board in the last few days. I haven't heard anyone mention the technical failure on the DOW in the VST. Again IT bulls, i am not talking to you folks. The trend is still on your side.

The consolidation on the DOW between 10/1 and 10/9 resulted in a fake breakout on the Fed minutes day. We had a severe breakout failure yesterday. That means we are headed lower, plain and simple. The 120-min momentum is also on a sell at this point. That means a 80% odds we are headed lower. I would expect a drop of 30-40 SPX points here. After that, who knows....

Now if we get a strong rally and take out the 10/9 highs, that would be something - a failure of a breakout failure. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in the VST is to the downside.

who cares about the dow? the spx and nyse both of which are more indicative of the broader mkt didnt display technical failures...and the ndx is a freight train....

we could have a gap up and hold and then a gap down on friday on the retail sales creating an island!!!

Marginal highs on SPX and NDX tommorow morning and then..... JMO

DOW is the leader and has been since 2003. But then, everyone thinks Nasdaq is the leader for some reason.

indexes change rolls and I think the new leader unequivically is the Naz...and I cannot spell anymore to save my life! we could have a gap up tommorow and have it hold and then a gap down on friday on the retail sales creating an island

Edited by iron cross, 11 October 2007 - 01:14 AM.

[NAV]

There's a whole lot of emotional posts on this board in the last few days. I haven't heard anyone mention the technical failure on the DOW in the VST. Again IT bulls, i am not talking to you folks. The trend is still on your side.

The consolidation on the DOW between 10/1 and 10/9 resulted in a fake breakout on the Fed minutes day. We had a severe breakout failure yesterday. That means we are headed lower, plain and simple. The 120-min momentum is also on a sell at this point. That means a 80% odds we are headed lower. I would expect a drop of 30-40 SPX points here. After that, who knows....

Now if we get a strong rally and take out the 10/9 highs, that would be something - a failure of a breakout failure. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in the VST is to the downside.

who cares about the dow? the spx and nyse both of which are more indicative of the broader mkt didnt display technical failures...and the ndx is a freight train....

we could have a gap up and hold and then a gap down on friday on the retail sales creating an island!!!

Marginal highs on SPX and NDX tommorow morning and then..... JMO

DOW is the leader and has been since 2003. But then, everyone thinks Nasdaq is the leader for some reason.

indexes change rolls and I think the new leader unequivically is the Naz...and I cannot spell anymore to save my life!

How so ?

On a larger timeframe, DOW made ATH first, which makes it the LT leader. Naz is nowhere close.

On a IT basis, DOW and Nasdaq broke to new recovery highs, on the same day 10/1/07.

Naz is strong no doubt, but don't confuse that for leadership. Naz leadership died in 2000.

[atlasshrugged]

There's a whole lot of emotional posts on this board in the last few days. I haven't heard anyone mention the technical failure on the DOW in the VST. Again IT bulls, i am not talking to you folks. The trend is still on your side.

The consolidation on the DOW between 10/1 and 10/9 resulted in a fake breakout on the Fed minutes day. We had a severe breakout failure yesterday. That means we are headed lower, plain and simple. The 120-min momentum is also on a sell at this point. That means a 80% odds we are headed lower. I would expect a drop of 30-40 SPX points here. After that, who knows....

Now if we get a strong rally and take out the 10/9 highs, that would be something - a failure of a breakout failure. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in the VST is to the downside.

who cares about the dow? the spx and nyse both of which are more indicative of the broader mkt didnt display technical failures...and the ndx is a freight train....

we could have a gap up and hold and then a gap down on friday on the retail sales creating an island!!!

Marginal highs on SPX and NDX tommorow morning and then..... JMO

DOW is the leader and has been since 2003. But then, everyone thinks Nasdaq is the leader for some reason.

indexes change rolls and I think the new leader unequivically is the Naz...and I cannot spell anymore to save my life!

How so ?

On a larger timeframe, DOW made ATH first, which makes it the LT leader. Naz is nowhere close.

On a IT basis, DOW and Nasdaq broke to new recovery highs, on the same day 10/1/07.

Naz is strong no doubt, but don't confuse that for leadership. Naz leadership died in 2000.

IT the Naz is WAAAAY above its July 16 highs...the dow just passed it! NDX is what I am referring to so there is no confusion

[NAV]

There's a whole lot of emotional posts on this board in the last few days. I haven't heard anyone mention the technical failure on the DOW in the VST. Again IT bulls, i am not talking to you folks. The trend is still on your side.

The consolidation on the DOW between 10/1 and 10/9 resulted in a fake breakout on the Fed minutes day. We had a severe breakout failure yesterday. That means we are headed lower, plain and simple. The 120-min momentum is also on a sell at this point. That means a 80% odds we are headed lower. I would expect a drop of 30-40 SPX points here. After that, who knows....

Now if we get a strong rally and take out the 10/9 highs, that would be something - a failure of a breakout failure. Until that happens, the path of least resistance in the VST is to the downside.

who cares about the dow? the spx and nyse both of which are more indicative of the broader mkt didnt display technical failures...and the ndx is a freight train....

we could have a gap up and hold and then a gap down on friday on the retail sales creating an island!!!

Marginal highs on SPX and NDX tommorow morning and then..... JMO

DOW is the leader and has been since 2003. But then, everyone thinks Nasdaq is the leader for some reason.

indexes change rolls and I think the new leader unequivically is the Naz...and I cannot spell anymore to save my life!

How so ?

On a larger timeframe, DOW made ATH first, which makes it the LT leader. Naz is nowhere close.

On a IT basis, DOW and Nasdaq broke to new recovery highs, on the same day 10/1/07.

Naz is strong no doubt, but don't confuse that for leadership. Naz leadership died in 2000.

IT the Naz is WAAAAY above its July 16 highs...the dow just passed it! NDX is what I am referring to so there is no confusion

Yeah, but DOW broke to new ATH. Naz or NDX just broke out to new recovery highs. It's WAAAAY below 2000 highs.

You know it's like saying Intel is not the semiconductor leader cuz it only grew at sub 10% annually. Now this valley startup who supplies parts to Intel increased it's profits 800% this year from 100K to 800K. So the startup must be the leader. I am exaggerating here, but you get the point.

[Laoya]

Nav, I agree with your analysis mostly but personally feel that the real downmove probably won't materialize for another week or so. Some sentiment and market breadth zones still seem to need that last push before a real Top is in. Might take a week or 2 more... JMHO! We're probably still in a distribution process. That said... I'm watching for the downside from here on... this market needs some volatility! I miss those 20-30pt days!

[NAV]

Nav,

I agree with your analysis mostly but personally feel that the real downmove probably won't materialize for another week or so. Some sentiment and market breadth zones still seem to need that last push before a real Top is in. Might take a week or 2 more... JMHO!

We're probably still in a distribution process. That said... I'm watching for the downside from here on... this market needs some volatility! I miss those 20-30pt days!

Laoya,

I am talking only about a VST move not any major move. Again, it's not based on my gut feel. I am just reading my indicators. This indicator on 120-min chart is crying "I am tired. I don't wanna go up anymore". But they keep pushing it




Now if we violate the 10/9 top on DOW, and the MACD crosses over above, all i can say is "Don't stay short".
Until then, probing for shorts, is not a bad idea IMO. But as i siad yesterday, if you are short, take it one day at a time and don't overstay and don't snooze overnight

Edited by NAV, 11 October 2007 - 05:35 AM.

[chichi2]

Nav,

I agree with your analysis mostly but personally feel that the real downmove probably won't materialize for another week or so. Some sentiment and market breadth zones still seem to need that last push before a real Top is in. Might take a week or 2 more... JMHO!

We're probably still in a distribution process. That said... I'm watching for the downside from here on... this market needs some volatility! I miss those 20-30pt days!

Laoya,

I am talking only about a VST move not any major move. Again, it's not based on my gut feel. I am just reading my indicators. This indicator on 120-min chart is crying "I am tired. I don't wanna go up anymore". But they keep pushing it




Now if we violate the 10/9 top on DOW, and the MACD crosses over above, all i can say is "Don't stay short".
Until then, probing for shorts, is not a bad idea IMO. But as i siad yesterday, if you are short, take it one day at a time and don't overstay and don't snooze overnight