25 replies to this topic

[ogm]

NAV, I think that chart is showing a trending consolidation. And will break out upwards. I was going to post a similar chart last night with breakout comments. Notice how the trend isn't reacting to MACD. As in the price remains above the moving averages and they are acting as support. This is a trending chart.

[eminimee]

Hi everyone...it's the boy who cried wolf AGAIN.

I'm now thinking we are putting on a bigger top than I first thought...unless of course these are leading diagonals. Shown here from the ending diagonal perspective would be an ED fifth of C of B on OEX....I've posted a 30 min oex at the bottom to show what I mean with three possible paths...If leading diagonal we should blow right through 731 oex. All imvho etc.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p99051463098&a=106624082&r=5843.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=13&i=p26821208852&a=93322579&r=529.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=16&i=p35556796538&a=108606210&r=4243.png



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=2&dy=5&i=p24153670083&a=112399825&r=2682.png

[ogm]

[OEXCHAOS]

Nav, I tried a short yesterday. It had everything going for it. An overdone market, bulled up sentiment, a VST and ST trend turn, a little overbought bounce, and I hit it. Volume confirmed as the position started playing out, then, BAM. Rally, right through my stop. Suddenly, the volume came in on the upside. The trade was perfect. I didn't screw up. The market is just stronger than would normally be expected. If it was primed for any sort of a decent decline, the ES should not have taken out 157300. Certainly not on any volume. That was the tell. We are strong. Too soon to short. Cost me 4 points on a 1/2 position, which isn't too bad, but it's frustrating. Most importantly the volume came in again late. It's a tell for higher prices. I was spent, but otherwise I would have tried a globex long. The downside was clearly minimal, into the open. That's just VST. They're giving us those overnight trades, btw, almost every day any more. It's just too darned long a day for me. Bigger picture, we have a high odds of making a short term top anywhere in here, but I'm just amazed at the persistence of strength. Mark

[NAV]

Nav,

but I'm just amazed at the persistence of strength.

Mark

It's not strength. It's giving that illusion of strength and building the bullish sentiment. The fact is they have not been able to clear the 200 point congestion zone from 10/1 to date on the DOW. There have been two breakout failures on 10/5 and 10/9. I am smelling blood.

[da_cheif]

da cheif wont be chorting at the line......so firgidaboudit.....i dont get nose bleed like so many around here......

[OEXCHAOS]

Well, all I know is that in order to make money shorting, they have to stop taking it higher! I'll keep probing, but the volume tell, thus far, has been higher. M

[ogm]

... but I'm just amazed at the persistence of strength.

Mark

I think the persistent bearishness off late is translating into persistent strength.

I'm honestly very surprized at a constantly high % of short selling attempts on this board in the face of the roaring momentum. Even going into today's open there is 40% at least partiualy short. Yet again. And again.

AAII and II and a couple other polls have popped into exhuberant territory, but as you said many times yourself they c an stay there for a while.

Big picture sentiment hasn't changed the way I see it. Still plenty of scepticism. Still the main discussion revolves around housing, economic solvency of the US, currency issues, consumer worries and so on.

[eminimee]

Mark, you mentioned "false starts" earlier in the week. They may be explained with the wave count..TWT. I'm still short via oex puts but took profits on a few points at 1567 on the swing attempt on es when what I thought was going to be a three down started looking more like an abc yesterday down to 1565. I'm flat ES still looking to short but want to see those cash indices this morning.

[fib_1618]

...unless of course these are leading diagonals.

Finally.

Fib