14 replies to this topic

[ed rader]

"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."

this is a BIG story in california. home owners -- especially those who bought in the past few years -- have been keeping an eye on what could become a model for home liquidation by overextended builders and banks.

http://www.mercuryne...;nclick_check=1

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 14 October 2007 - 04:56 PM.

[endisnear]

"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."

this is a BIG story in california. home owners -- especially those who bought in the past few years -- have been keeping an eye on what could become a model for home liquidation by overextended builders and banks.

http://www.mercuryne...;nclick_check=1

ed rader

Its OK Ed...its already been priced in the mkt....its not as bad as it seems.

[ed rader]

"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."

this is a BIG story in california. home owners -- especially those who bought in the past few years -- have been keeping an eye on what could become a model for home liquidation by overextended builders and banks.

http://www.mercuryne...;nclick_check=1

ed rader

Its OK Ed...its already been priced in the mkt....its not as bad as it seems.

and real estate is regional; a central valley hick town is a likely location for a RE bubble

ed rader

[fib_1618]

a central valley hick town is a likely location for a RE bubble

I'm sure that the people who live there, and work in the bay area, appreciate your insight.

You really need to get out more often Ed and see what life is like outside the "People's Republic"...you might find it surprising, if not an eye opener.

Fib

[ed rader]

a central valley hick town is a likely location for a RE bubble

I'm sure that the people who live there, and work in the bay area, appreciate your insight.

You really need to get out more often Ed and see what life is like outside the "People's Republic"...you might find it surprising, if not an eye opener.

Fib

and just how would you know where i've been mr. Fib ?

the central valley will be undergoing some major pain as this housing bubble unwinds.

that's what happens when people buy homes where they really don't want to live... .

peace out

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 14 October 2007 - 05:46 PM.

[fib_1618]

and just how would you know where I've been mr. Fib

Well, I do know you love the coast...keep the pictures coming.

the central valley will be undergoing some major pain as this housing bubble unwinds

Not as much as you hope...shame on people trying to make something of themselves.

that's what happens when people buy homes where they really don't want to live...

Or...can't afford to...but at least their intentions are good, and they do try to make the best of what's given to them to work with.

Mistakes? I guess we've all been there, haven't we?

Fib

[ed rader]

and just how would you know where I've been mr. Fib

Well, I do know you love the coast...keep the pictures coming.

the central valley will be undergoing some major pain as this housing bubble unwinds

Not as much as you hope...shame on people trying to make something of themselves.

that's what happens when people buy homes where they really don't want to live...

Or...can't afford to...but at least their intentions are good, and they do try to make the best of what's given to them to work with.

Mistakes? I guess we've all been there, haven't we?

Fib

i think RE is headed for a decade-long nightmare...which began almost two years ago.

as traders don't we profit from the "mistakes" of others...or do you think money is really created by an overspending government and ben bernanke ?

now don't go getting soft on me Fib and start feeling other people's pain .... .

ed rader

[fib_1618]

i think RE is headed for a decade-long nightmare...which began almost two years ago

I do believe that this was your same opinion in 2003. I also haven't seen you make a post as yet that you have sold your home in Menlo Park based on this same opinion either. With a decade long slump coming, one would think it a mistake not to take advantage of today's high prices and profit from it.

as traders don't we profit from the "mistakes" of others

We all do when it comes to making decisions that involve money...or love.

now don't go getting soft on me Fib and start feeling other people's pain

I guess that's what makes us different. I'm not one to cheer on other peoples suffering, and then characterize them as being something when they're not.

After all, I'm sure there are some in Marin County who consider anyone south and east of San Francisco a "hick" as well.

Fib

[ed rader]

i think RE is headed for a decade-long nightmare...which began almost two years ago
I do believe that this was your same opinion in 2003. I also haven't seen you make a post as yet that you have sold your home in Menlo Park based on this same opinion either. With a decade long slump coming, one would think it a mistake not to take advantage of today's high prices and profit from it.

i live in san jose, not menlo park. i have been negative on real estate since 2000. my house has increased in value more than 120% since then and i've locked in a 30-year 5.25% mortgage while waiting for the world to end .... whoops !

as traders don't we profit from the "mistakes" of others

We all do when it comes to making decisions that involve money...or love.

now don't go getting soft on me Fib and start feeling other people's pain

I guess that's what makes us different. I'm not one to cheer on other peoples suffering, and then characterize them as being something when they're not.

After all, I'm sure there are some in Marin County who consider anyone south and east of San Francisco a "hick" as well.

and you remember what bush the elder said about marin hot tubbers ...and you probably voted for that one as well .

did you get out of your tech hi-fliers in 2000...or did you think it would never end that time too?

ed rader

Fib

Edited by ed rader, 14 October 2007 - 09:04 PM.

[fib_1618]

did you get out of your tech hi-fliers in 2000...or did you think it would never end that time too?

Actually, there was a sell signal on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM on 4/18/00 and I closed out the last of my positions at that time. It's also interesting to note that this same sell signal gave an initial downside price objective for the COMPQ of 2800, and believe me when I tell you, no one was interested in listening to the warning given at that time.

But you can't live in a stock position where you can live in a house. And when things get tough, it's basic animal instinct to "nest" and wait for a storm to pass. And this was the major reason why housing appreciated as it did earlier this decade...all those improvements of "protection" translated to value. This is also a reason why housing has remained as buoyant as it has during the last couple of years in spite of all the froth.

Better to be angry at people who then took advantage of an emotional hook than to chastise those who only wanted a piece of the action and had a sense of urgency in doing so. Every reasonable person out there knew it was only a matter of time before this kind of mistake was going to come to a head, and if I were you, I would be looking around for some investment property right now - though some due diligence is needed - while being aware of the fact that there are better places to invest than those areas in which people tend to be drawn to during soft spots in the economy...major cities.

Best
Fib