14 replies to this topic

[blackprince]

Well folks i live in Fresno and as far as Manteca goes it was based on LIAR LOANS. The real RE market is doing just fine. All it needs is for lenders to feel secure which will happen as soon as the Treasury Dept. starts monetarizing the loans. The tax sheltered apartment biz is going full tilt by the way.

[ed rader]

did you get out of your tech hi-fliers in 2000...or did you think it would never end that time too?

Actually, there was a sell signal on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM on 4/18/00 and I closed out the last of my positions at that time. It's also interesting to note that this same sell signal gave an initial downside price objective for the COMPQ of 2800, and believe me when I tell you, no one was interested in listening to the warning given at that time.

But you can't live in a stock position where you can live in a house. And when things get tough, it's basic animal instinct to "nest" and wait for a storm to pass. And this was the major reason why housing appreciated as it did earlier this decade...all those improvements of "protection" translated to value. This is also a reason why housing has remained as buoyant as it has during the last couple of years in spite of all the froth.

Better to be angry at people who then took advantage of an emotional hook than to chastise those who only wanted a piece of the action and had a sense of urgency in doing so. Every reasonable person out there knew it was only a matter of time before this kind of mistake was going to come to a head, and if I were you, I would be looking around for some investment property right now - though some due diligence is needed - while being aware of the fact that there are better places to invest than those areas in which people tend to be drawn to during soft spots in the economy...major cities.

Best
Fib

Fib -- i'm really not interested in real estate as an investment even if i believed that some sort of bottom was near.

there's a huge disparity between rents and mortgages -- the largest i've ever seen -- and that means rents will either have to go up alot or prices will come down to make RE investing attractive.

i think the latter is most likely since rents have risen quite dramatically in the past two years. i think the best thing that can happen to the RE market is for prices to come down and i think the painful, protracted, process has begun.

and i also think we are still in the denial phase before the real price slashing takes place.

so you'll have plenty of bargain hunting opportunities in your neck of the woods....but i'd wait a bit if i were you !

good luck!

ed rader

[fib_1618]

i'm really not interested in real estate as an investment even if i believed that some sort of bottom was near.

Well, with builder sentiment at 18% right now, the lowest level it's ever been, and where 50% is the demarcation between expanding and contracting, you might want to at least explore what's available to you.

there's a huge disparity between rents and mortgages -- the largest i've ever seen -- and that means rents will either have to go up alot or prices will come down to make RE investing attractive.

I guess it all depends on where you're looking. In Dallas right now, you can buy a 2500 square foot home for around $150,000 and charge $2000/$2500 in rent a month. Just one example, but there are better situations out there right now...Nashville, TN. and Branson, MO. to name a few ideas to look into.

i think the latter is most likely since rents have risen quite dramatically in the past two years. i think the best thing that can happen to the RE market is for prices to come down and i think the painful, protracted, process has begun.

Unless the cost of getting into a home remains reasonable, and taxes remain at these levels or lower. Anything under a 7 1/2% rate is historically low, no less, we still haven't seen the kind of thing that usually goes with the mindset of getting real estate at any price (at least like we saw in the early and late 1980's). The area that is being hit the most is the high end market which many builders, who have been in trouble, decided to cater to during 2005 and 2006's huge run up. You live by the sword, you die by the sword.

and i also think we are still in the denial phase before the real price slashing takes place.

There is no denial...how can there be? The media is doing great job of telling all of us how bad it is. But people still need shelter - so better to take the home off the market and wait, then to pressure yourself into something that may not work out the way you wish. It's a buyers market - they have the control - and there are many foreclosures out there available to snap up keeping things buoyant by people who can put 20% down, and do have good to great credit.

so you'll have plenty of bargain hunting opportunities in your neck of the woods....but i'd wait a bit if i were you

Turn over rate right now in Sacramento county is averaging 3 weeks, better than the 8-10 weeks earlier this year. But this area, as well as the Manteca/Modesto areas are fairly to fully valued. In fact, much of both coasts, where a great majority of people live in this country, are this way. But just like sentiment with any investment, you usually find you're best buys when no believes them to be worth the effort.

Well folks i live in Fresno and as far as Manteca goes it was based on LIAR LOANS

Yes, some loans were made to people who not only didn't qualify, but also...ummmm...didn't quite follow the law of the land (if you catch my drift).

Greed and panic...I wonder which emotion is the worse of the two?

Fib

[Rogerdodger]

Hi Fib.
It's interesting that you mentioned Branson, MO.
TIME magazine Recognized Branson, MO. Sept. 6.
The TIME magazine article, "Home Free," stated the Tri-Lakes Area is where buying a second home and collecting rent until one is ready to use it is plausible.

"Bousheri is in the process of moving his parents from Los Angeles to Branson, and said the condo they are moving into costs less than $200,000.
A comparable condo in Los Angeles would cost at least a million dollars.
"It is much more reasonable here. There are more possibilities."
Deana Oliver and her husband Bob eventually plan to move and retire in Branson from Clovis, Calif. The Olivers have purchased several pieces of property and are building rental property which will help finance their retirement.
Deana said they couldn't have made this kind of investment in California.
"The return on our money invested is outstanding," she said. "You can't get that where we come from. We were able to use our money and buy a lot more out here."
"It is just a great place to live, work, play and invest," Witeka said."

Branson Condos LINK

The new Branson Landing on lake Taneycomo is topped with condos originally priced to sell at $225,000 but now are going for double that.
A top corner condo overlooking the lake and fountain show went for a reported $750,000 recently.

Here's part of the view he gets for his money:
(That's my grand-daughter sitting by the fountain yesterday.)


PS: Branson, Mo. currently has 116 diferent shows with more seats than New York's Broadway!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 October 2007 - 12:25 AM.

[fib_1618]

"It is just a great place to live, work, play and invest," Witeka said."

And with the new airport expansion, that means more jobs for the Springfield/Branson area.

And more jobs mean that people will need a place to live.

There's always something out there if you look hard enough.

Fib