19 replies to this topic

[n83]

Hmm.... first of all making statements like "market is clueless.. I'm right. market is wrong" .... will not make you any money.

Second. How much cash did INTC generate since 2005 ? Cashflow matters. There is your growth. Never forget the cashflow , dividends and share buybacks.

INTC is a steady cash generator with the business in a cyclical upswing. And its GROWING the SHAREHOLDER VALUE quite significantly.

well then, then talk cashflow and not 'blow out numbers'-gg

btw am long some techs but somehow i think this will be shortlived and it will not spillover into something broadbased massive and lasting (jmo)

i will wait for the market's next word

in the meantime you may have the next word

[ogm]

Hmm.... first of all making statements like "market is clueless.. I'm right. market is wrong" .... will not make you any money.

Second. How much cash did INTC generate since 2005 ? Cashflow matters. There is your growth. Never forget the cashflow , dividends and share buybacks.

INTC is a steady cash generator with the business in a cyclical upswing. And its GROWING the SHAREHOLDER VALUE quite significantly.

well then, then talk cashflow and not 'blow out numbers'-gg

btw am long some techs but somehow i think this will be shortlived and it will not spillover into something broadbased massive and lasting (jmo)

i will wait for the market's next word

in the meantime you may have the next word

Ok, I'll have one.

Good revenues + increasing margins = more cashflow.

Projected even higher growth and even higher margins = even more cashflow.

Sounds like great numbers to me


.....

As for the tech's argument in general. Imagine you are a fund manager. And you need to put money to work. There aren't that many sectors where you can put money to work with confidence.

Energy and techs are probably the only 2.

Techs aren't heavily dependant on credit flows. Especcialy cash flow machines like MSFT and INTC.

There is huge build out of telecom infrastructure and services in the world. Billions of Chineese, Indians, Malasians, Russians, Hispanics.. all want to buy a PC, cell phone, PDA and hook up to the internet. There is HUGE demand for that stuff.

This demand won't go away because of some housing problem in some country on the other side of the world. Regular Chineese /Malasyans, don't give a crap about subprime in the US. They want services. They want High tech. They want to play online games and send SMS to their girlfriends. They want digital cameras and Flat screen TV's.

Their new corporations want PC's , networks, software... all the productivity tools....

Tech is a rather safe bet here. Its in a major growth cycle. You short tech here.. you lose.

[NAV]

Hmm.... first of all making statements like "market is clueless.. I'm right. market is wrong" .... will not make you any money.

Second. How much cash did INTC generate since 2005 ? Cashflow matters. There is your growth. Never forget the cashflow , dividends and share buybacks.

INTC is a steady cash generator with the business in a cyclical upswing. And its GROWING the SHAREHOLDER VALUE quite significantly.

well then, then talk cashflow and not 'blow out numbers'-gg

btw am long some techs but somehow i think this will be shortlived and it will not spillover into something broadbased massive and lasting (jmo)

i will wait for the market's next word

in the meantime you may have the next word

Ok, I'll have one.

Good revenues + increasing margins = more cashflow.

Projected even higher growth and even higher margins = even more cashflow.

Sounds like great numbers to me


.....

As for the tech's argument in general. Imagine you are a fund manager. And you need to put money to work. There aren't that many sectors where you can put money to work with confidence.

Energy and techs are probably the only 2.

Techs aren't heavily dependant on credit flows. Especcialy cash flow machines like MSFT and INTC.

There is huge build out of telecom infrastructure and services in the world. Billions of Chineese, Indians, Malasians, Russians, Hispanics.. all want to buy a PC, cell phone, PDA and hook up to the internet. There is HUGE demand for that stuff.

This demand won't go away because of some housing problem in some country on the other side of the world. Regular Chineese /Malasyans, don't give a crap about subprime in the US. They want services. They want High tech. They want to play online games and send SMS to their girlfriends. They want digital cameras and Flat screen TV's.

Their new corporations want PC's , networks, software... all the productivity tools....

Tech is a rather safe bet here. Its in a major growth cycle. You short tech here.. you lose.

All these have got nothing to do with the stock market.

[ogm]

Actually, indirectly it does have to do with the market. Once again, imagine you're a fund manager.... You need to put money to work. What do you buy ? You won't buy any more CDO's, CMO's, CLO's, and other crap. You'll either buy bonds or stocks. Bond's don't yield anything worth mentioning. So to pick up alpha you buy stocks. Your choices are pretty limited considering you're scared about the economy and don't like the looks of some sectors. So you engage the thought process that I have described above. And buy techs and energy. The TA says that this is exactly the case. You buy good old MSFT that generates a tonn of cash, predictable and very liquid, is in the growth cycle, and won't let you down with a huge overnight down gap

Edited by ogm, 16 October 2007 - 10:25 PM.

[dcengr]

You all need to stop pooping on OGM's parade. He's bullish and his stock is going up.

[ogm]

You all need to stop pooping on OGM's parade. He's bullish and his stock is going up.

Not one stock...

When I have to argue with several people... it makes me even more bullish

37% fully short again... They either nailed this generational top and the beggining of wave 3 down.. or you gotta love it

Edited by ogm, 16 October 2007 - 10:43 PM.

[NAV]

Actually, indirectly it does have to do with the market.

Once again, imagine you're a fund manager....

You need to put money to work. What do you buy ?

You won't buy any more CDO's, CMO's, CLO's, and other crap. You'll either buy bonds or stocks. Bond's don't yield anything worth mentioning. So to pick up alpha you buy stocks.

Your choices are pretty limited considering you're scared about the economy and don't like the looks of some sectors. So you engage the thought process that I have described above. And buy techs and energy.

The TA says that this is exactly the case.

You buy good old MSFT that generates a tonn of cash, predictable and very liquid, is in the growth cycle, and won't let you down with a huge overnight down gap

If i were a fund manager, i would be fully invested all the time, whether the market goes up or down. That's the only way to ensure my bonus. I woudn't be concerned with market direction or economy or earnings.

Edited by NAV, 16 October 2007 - 10:52 PM.

[denleo]

If i were a fund manager, i would be fully invested all the time, whether the market goes up or down. That's the only way to ensure my bonus. I woudn't be concerned with market direction or economy or earnings.
[/quote]


Bravo NAV!!! Finally someone said it. Most fund managers are fully invested all the time!!! They don't time anything. They care about a bonus. This is it. Sometimes the market is down for the year, so there is no bonus. But most of the time it is up. If you are a fund manager, you either get a bonus or just a salary. But you never get a loss. Traders lose. Managers don't.

Denleo

[n83]

Edited by n83, 17 October 2007 - 04:52 AM.

[ogm]

manure. There are different kinds of fund managers. Some are greedier or smarter then others. Some actually want to perform. If you lag like a dog year after year, eventualy you're out of the job and no more bonuses for you. I'm not talking about the trash you're talking about, I'm talking about people who actually manage funds to make money.