22 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Thanks for posting. I don't see much statistical significance however. Have you ever backtested this
idea more than a few months? There are times when patterns work, but they tend to fizzle out. An
edge that has withstood the test of time is more likely to work in the future.

My COT stuff is nicely bullish here for the IT.

D


danz


"You can lead a horse to water.."

COT doesn't explain half the information that even this chart tells..

No momentum No trend change confirmation etc. NOT to mention the well tuned version of the chart! This one is just the stock version.

So what do you mean by you don't see the statistical significance...heh heh...Not seeing well,... is often

a hazard to ones trading. I can't make it much clearer.

I can look at a chart and see if it is working,..I'll leave the back testing to you.

I'm not sure what times are you talking about,.. when you challenged the patterns . What pattern?

Moving back inside the bollis?......that is a pattern that works on many charts we trade...

see one the 7 Sentinels.

Thanks for the test of time advice,..but I think you'd better get to know the thing first.

I didn't just make this ******** up and flip it out there.

I've even explained how to trade on a daily basis within the trend signal using this chart...COT ...can't help you there either.

Maybe a serious trader should test first ....and then admit they don't see anything.
Ahh.......just forget I even posted it.

Edited by Mr Dev, 26 October 2007 - 07:32 PM.

[thespookyone]

Mr Dev=I for one appreciate and understand your work=please keep posting it. As for just taking a quick glance at a chart-if I take a quick glance at a COT chart, it tells me over the past year or so (most relevant to todays market, I'd say) that the positioning of commercials in respect to market movement-has been quite lackluster. If we are talking about proven consistancy, looking back, the hanging man candlestick that the NDX threw today has produced very high percentage results-to the downside the next day-oh well.

[Mr Dev]

Mr Dev=I for one appreciate and understand your work=please keep posting it. As for just taking a quick glance at a chart-if I take a quick glance at a COT chart, it tells me over the past year or so (most relevant to todays market, I'd say) that the positioning of commercials in respect to market movement-has been quite lackluster. If we are talking about proven consistancy, looking back, the hanging man candlestick that the NDX threw today has produced very high percentage results-to the downside the next day-oh well.

Thank you for the kind words spooky1

Traders,

WE all use what we think works... SO we all are millionaires right? ...NO?..anyone really close

I somehow trade without a hint of COT...and do very well.

There are other traders like L.W. who use it along with other TA to their advantage,... and I respect that.

I would also admit to trusting candle patterns just a little more.

Hey we all who trade here know how easy it is to challenge any chart work and say it won't work out.

But actually posting something that does,...well that puts us into a different league. I think I've earned that

much over the years.

If you look at the CPC chart ....the MAs alone do not pin point tops or bottoms but as the MAs move and you

trade your spikes in the CPC (in either direction) you are now using both barrels on the gun.


So since danz ruffled my feathers on the chart.............this won't WORK all the time folks ....I'll show you even

more details of the CPC--EKG....that I use to interpret fin my trading to see when things may turn, or trade within a trend.

Call it luck .....but I couldn't do it without the chart.


SO here is another one of the many CPC charts I've shared .



CPC

Edited by Mr Dev, 26 October 2007 - 08:11 PM.

[danzman]

I suppose I am the sort of trader that wants exact rules and dozens of examples using
those rules. From there, I can determine correct position sizing.

My COT work is 100% mechanical. I can't say my equity curve goes up in a straight line, but it's the best I
have yet to come up with after all these years (just for IT timing...not ST).

There's a great deal that can be said about actually backtesting your ideas. In my early days, I spent hours pouring over charts and overlaying put/call ratios and sentiment data. There were patterns I would see, but when I backtested them with exact rules, they didn't work out. It's my personal style to test everything thoroughly before risking any money. I highly suggest others do this as well. You can see lots of examples of mechanical systems here:



http://www.collective2.com



D

[Swiss Trader]

Very interesting
The best buy/sell signals are when both MA's are in the same direction and the 8 MA's crosses above/below the middle BB line.
ExitLong and ExitShort when you have a simple cross of the two MA's
A Big Short Move is expected when the 8 MA is crossing above the Higher Band (better if you had previous higher lows or double bottoms on the 8 MA's)



Albert

Edited by Swiss Trader, 27 October 2007 - 04:16 AM.

[DonBart]

I suppose I am the sort of trader that wants exact rules and dozens of examples using
those rules. From there, I can determine correct position sizing.

My COT work is 100% mechanical. I can't say my equity curve goes up in a straight line, but it's the best I
have yet to come up with after all these years (just for IT timing...not ST).

There's a great deal that can be said about actually backtesting your ideas. In my early days, I spent hours pouring over charts and overlaying put/call ratios and sentiment data. There were patterns I would see, but when I backtested them with exact rules, they didn't work out. It's my personal style to test everything thoroughly before risking any money. I highly suggest others do this as well. You can see lots of examples of mechanical systems here:



http://www.collective2.com

Danzman,

You must be from Missouri (the "show me" state)

I'll bet when you go to Las Vegas you only play the games the have the highest payback % and you know the correct game strategy by heart and are disciplined enough to stick to it. You probably even count cards at the blackjack table.

By contrast most here are probably roulette players who notice a "pattern" that every time it comes up black 3 times in a row the next one comes up red, and they are more than willing to gamble on that "pattern" that they've discovered. The fact that they've only seen that pattern happen a couple times is no problem. And when it fails then they just go over to the slot mahines and notice that one particular mahine seems to be paying well so there is the next pattern to bet on... No mathematical rigor, no statistical analysis, just a short-term observation and a hunch.

It's called "fooled by randomness".

Throughout my eductation as a trader I have seen many indicators or patterns that appeared to work great over the last few months or last few years , but when you subject them to rigorous backtesting they just blow up.

Like you I would love it if more traders here would show things like win/loss %, max drawdown, sharpe ratio, calmar ratio. Otherwise as you say how does one evaluate the tradeability of any "system" or indicator. Frankly I am amazed by how many are willing to "roll the dice" because they see a couple of good signals over a 3-5 month history shown on a chart.

But I think most of what you preach is falling on deaf ears here. This is a discretionary traders board. Not much interest in mechanical trading here. Besides where is the "rush" from mechanical trading. Much more fun to gamble...

[relax]

based on albert's chart, we should be heading up

[Specul8]

Here is a small CPC chart below with just a 21 ma. for a guided preview to what your chart should look like.

The chart works on an inverse relation,..the lows on the chart are highs for the market ..and visa versa.

You can see as even the 21 moved back inside the bolli back in Aug (which I caught and flipped at 10:45am
the morning of the reversal day)it told us a momentum low was in for the markets.

Earlier see the momentum in price that picked up as it moved outside the bollis...in July which told us we could trade into a

momentum short position.

At this time the 21 is about to move back into the Bolli as it signals a momentum high is nearing it's end.


This is much different than a standard looking CPC chart....don't you agree.?

It carries much more meaniing.

Unfortunate a chart of the equity only PC ratio isn't available. I think it would be far more meaningful.

[watson]

Unfortunate a chart of the equity only PC ratio isn't available. I think it would be far more meaningful.

Check out $CPCE.

[Mr Dev]

I think I may have a few NEW believers,...but I don't give a hoot either way.

With this major move lower only a few days after I gave the heads up,...I'm feeling good enough

having given everyone fair waring!

As I said .....I think I've earned some respect.

Search the board ,...you'll find a few of us...

.......but only yours truely posted " Market TOOPING FORMATION !" and went further into

detail for those traders that thought they needed to back test my information.

My point is,....use today as a memory point ,...and F!@$# the back testing bro!

Show me ...the money!


Let the record show the days losses

Very interesting
The best buy/sell signals are when both MA's are in the same direction and the 8 MA's crosses above/below the middle BB line.
ExitLong and ExitShort when you have a simple cross of the two MA's
A Big Short Move is expected when the 8 MA is crossing above the Higher Band (better if you had previous higher lows or double bottoms on the 8 MA's)



Albert

Good work,..

.also know that you can play the spikes that are counter to the trend for some fast opportunities.

Example is your chart above that gave us a Spike lower in the CPC and the negative cross had already ocured.

there you have it,...something that works!

Edited by Mr Dev, 01 November 2007 - 03:23 PM.