14 replies to this topic

[ogm]

What will the market do is anyone's guess. But it probably won't like it. I think there is a very good chance Fed won't cut at all today. Either way... I'm short gold here.

[MacRo]

while I agree any more cuts = significant moral hazard, I am warry of the fed's willingness to prostitute itself in the name of our capital markets...

[bliss just missed]

What will the market do is anyone's guess. But it probably won't like it.

I think there is a very good chance Fed won't cut at all today.

Either way... I'm short gold here.

Fed fund futures has priced in 88% chance of 1/4 point cut. Also, highly doubtful u go from a 1/2 cut to no cut at all. Still have credit risk to account for...I suspect 1/4 point cut with language that is much softened regarding credit risk and an indication that they have not taken their eye off of inflation...yada yada yada

[arbman]

What are the eurodollar futures saying? Something like 100% probability of a 0.25% rate cut...

[MacRo]

I also think there is even better risk:reward to shorting the front end of the yield curve, as opposed to gold. Irrespective of dollar, gold has enough long-term bullish demand drivers to sustain reasonable prices Treasuries will not be so fortunate over the next decade or so.

[Woody]

What will the market do is anyone's guess. But it probably won't like it.

I think there is a very good chance Fed won't cut at all today.

Either way... I'm short gold here.

OGM doesnt matter what the Fed does wouldnt be surprised at all at a massive rally in the dollar, currently bidding on some Dollar Index Calls on Futures contract, Dec 80's going for $0.08 or $80 bucks a pop

[OEXCHAOS]

I also think there is even better risk:reward to shorting the front end of the yield curve, as opposed to gold.

Irrespective of dollar, gold has enough long-term bullish demand drivers to sustain reasonable prices

Treasuries will not be so fortunate over the next decade or so.

You might be surprised, especially if the Feds rein in spending. The buck is cheap. That means bonds might be relatively cheap, even at low rates.

Mark

[Pabst]

I also think there is even better risk:reward to shorting the front end of the yield curve, as opposed to gold.

Irrespective of dollar, gold has enough long-term bullish demand drivers to sustain reasonable prices

Treasuries will not be so fortunate over the next decade or so.

You might be surprised, especially if the Feds rein in spending. The buck is cheap. That means bonds might be relatively cheap, even at low rates.

Mark

Bonds will get trashed on a stronger dollar.

[arbman]

Bonds will get trashed on a stronger dollar.

Fed wants this.

[Pabst]

Bonds will get trashed on a stronger dollar.

Fed wants this.

Agree. A steeper curve is the ultimate bailout for lenders.