16 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Well you finally have a count that I can agree with..

http://www.traders-t...?...logid=30=

[ogm]

Well you finally have a count that I can agree with..

http://www.traders-t...?...logid=30=

I think Banks may be due for a bounce, but I wouldn't go as far as to call this a bottom.

I posted my LT chart on another thread on BKX, I think the sector is in long term flat/decline mode.

101-106 zone on BKX is now a rock solid resistance and will hold for many month to come.

Edited by ogm, 03 November 2007 - 06:38 AM.

[ogm]

Here is the same thing with a couple comments.

Notice the momentum on all time frames is now down. MACD is accelerating on all 3, no slowdown in sight. The downtrend is solidly in place now.

if you look at the candles, for 3 month they failed to close above 33 EMA. also held solidly before breakdown. Now the 55 EMA is broken too. the month is still young, but the best we can hope for is for it to climb back above 55 EMA back to 101-106 zone.

But the resistance in that zone is rock solid. And momentum says good chance we're not going to break it any time soon. I personaly think we won't even climb above 55 EMA (102)

Either way, this is a firm downtrend now. So I'd look for opportunities to sell bounces rather then pick bottoms for 5 points.

There is only 5-8 points of possible upside in BKX, and 95 points of the downside. Risk/reward.....

Edited by ogm, 03 November 2007 - 07:00 AM.

[eminimee]

"There is only 5-8 points of possible upside in BKX, and 95 points of the downside. Risk/reward....."



..so all banks are about to go out of business? I think you just hit critical mass with your bearishness!

PS: OGM..very tough to read that chart with it that size.

Edited by Teaparty, 03 November 2007 - 07:25 AM.

[ogm]

"There is only 5-8 points of possible upside in BKX, and 95 points of the downside. Risk/reward....."



..so all banks are about to go out of business? I think you just hit critical mass with your bearishness!

PS: OGM..very tough to read that chart with it that size.

Hehe.. I'm just saying what the risk reward is Well, the thing is in a downtrend.... thats the point. You never know where the bottom is.

Most importantly, the downtrend is now solidly in place untill proven otherwise. It may bounce, it may not, momentum to the downside is very strong.

For what I know skeletons may be coming out of the closet once a week pushing this lower and lower. I'm only discussing what I see on the chart here, just TA. 55 EMA is broken and BKX needs to get back above it fast, or the deal is sealed, and the sector is out of comission for a loooong time.

Sorry about the charts. I've upgraded my system recentlry, and since then they are coming out like that. Gotta figure it out.

Edited by ogm, 03 November 2007 - 07:40 AM.

[greenie]

I agree with OGM. BKX is much closer to the top than the bottom, despite this correction. It has room to fall another 90 points until all problems are discounted.

[mike123]

Check out ABX. Nose dived since end of third quarter. Means more write downs for banks.
Another $8 Billion for MER?

http://www.markit.co...ory_graphs.html