24 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

I understand, but the wave patterns that have for Senor a muy bueno chance to have ended suggest a decline to 780. And Senor does not like how the gold stocks (HUI,XAU) have been acting.

NO BS




Senor

my work shows we pull back to 4of3 which was the 780 area. i think this is wave 4. which should pull back to one wave of lesser degree. the chart of gold, going back to 80 looks like a big cup and now we form the handle. also, my experience of being a trader since 79, is commodiites blow off. this will be no different. all the pieces of the puzzle are there and are coming together. i respect the technicians on this board, although i dont agree w/their conclusions. dharma

Amigo, we seem to agree. If you think Gold is going t0 780 why would you not lighten up? Senor can easily see the HUI going to 375, maybe even 300. If it goes to 375 that's a 23% drop from the high. Senor does not want to be long for that.

NO BS

Senor

[dougie]

if we call the Jan decline A then it was 74 points 358 would be 1.618 x A C wave. not unlikely retrace; 384 a 1.27 fibo 419 my favorite target. another 4%?

[blustar]

I think gold will hold 855/60 and then rally above 1000 by May and then we see a nasty reversal into June and then later March/April next year. 650 would not surprise me on the pull backs, but even more the miners could get hurt even worse. I like GDX at 42.50 for a move above 65 by May. blu

[dougie]

sure are A LOT of folks looking down here now: the job a wave 2 no?

[AChartist]

GLD tops line at 86 this week, trend line at 83, candle top at 83.63.
I'm buying anywhere around those. I bet the tops line can be broke
but not closed below.

I think gold will hold 855/60 and then rally above 1000 by May and then we see a nasty reversal into June and then later March/April next year. 650 would not surprise me on the pull backs, but even more the miners could get hurt even worse. I like GDX at 42.50 for a move above 65 by May.

blu

[dharma]

tor-yes, i think there is a good chance we pull back to 780. senor-its a matter of style, i am being disciplined on this gold rise. i am going to try and stay fully invested until gold expresses itself. i have seen bull and bear markets and significant money is made by riding the trend, i am hoping that this trade will be my retirement. we shall see. dharma

[senorBS]

tor-yes, i think there is a good chance we pull back to 780.

senor-its a matter of style, i am being disciplined on this gold rise. i am going to try and stay fully invested until gold expresses itself. i have seen bull and bear markets and significant money is made by riding the trend, i am hoping that this trade will be my retirement. we shall see.
dharma

Understood amigo. My style most of the time is too try to avoid large drawdowns and be more of a timer. That does not always work but I sleep better.

BSing away

Senor

[mdwllc]

2/4: Established remaining position in SPPIX on close. Good Trading...MDW

[dharma]

as a matter of fact, this never disturbs my sleep. there is no way the gold/silver market has topped. this will end in a parabolic blowoff. dharma

[Tor]

as a matter of fact, this never disturbs my sleep.


there is no way the gold/silver market has topped. this will end in a parabolic blowoff.
dharma

dharma, I think this is probably advice you know well already. But i would avoid any type of gearing in the case of riding out a correction.

Did I tell you about my story back in 2007 of a leveraged bet in gold stocks?

Well, I was leveraged to the hilt, and the stocks just kept pushing down. At one point I was getting margin called every hour on the hour. I kept on making excuses. Anyway I sold a number of positions at the low point, then raised some cash from my savings, and funded the rest. Luckily there was a damage limitation to the experience, but the personal cost much higer.

I was seriously close to losing my shirt!!!

Anyway, appreciate your posts and good luck with your trades.
I must confess i am concerned we have apparently topped out even below $1000 level these days. i thoguht there was a panic based on credit going on.

The way some people talking of depression etc, recession gold maybe should be higher.