28 replies to this topic

[rigelpug]

Now let's contrast it with QID... Quality of Volume up... lighter volume pullback on the way down...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

My best guess here is a test of 48.50 and rebound... based on present data...

I think the bears will let the bulls score a first down before any downside might start. I would think long would be the way to go until after all the shorts are squeezed.

[StillLearnin]

[/quote] Totally agree, Friday looked fake. [/quote] Riq... Define "fake" Thanks. SL

Edited by StillLearnin, 31 March 2008 - 12:47 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Same same on SPX Hourly... da JAWS..

[IndexTrader]

The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds.

The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right?


M

Dang, and here I was feeling pretty smart about shorting the YM (I posted the YM) and the ES Friday, and closing out late in the day for a very nice profit. But if that was "amateur", give me amateur any day.

IT

[SemiBizz]

The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds.

The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right?


M

Dang, and here I was feeling pretty smart about shorting the YM (I posted the YM) and the ES Friday, and closing out late in the day for a very nice profit. But if that was "amateur", give me amateur any day.

IT

And this amateur was even able to post the DJIA target... Although I was involved in QID myself...

[OEXCHAOS]

Well, those same amateurs are going long today, so there's another opportunity just ahead...

The volume is light today and we all know the number they need to close on... no mystery there.

REALLY?

How are you ascertaining that?

M

VOLUME - See the "JAWS" pattern of price and volume? <

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

I ignore the volume on penny-ante derivative ETF's. It's irrelevant or worse. I focus on the REAL money, which is the futures or in the broad indices themselves.


The hourly on the ES looks more than a little like a Bullish spring.

I do see the 130000 area as being a potential trarget if they turn it down, however.

M

[OEXCHAOS]

The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds.

The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right?


M

Anything to back that up ie that the "biggest" amateurs were shorting?

Depends what and what time on Friday they put on the shorts and if in the morning they are still in the money. So even if they are amateurs they made money against the professional bulls who went long on Friday morning.

I really doubt there are amateurs in this market. Do you consider Bear Stearns to have been a company of amateurs? They went bankrupt trading. Or Citi? Or Society General? Who exactly are these amateurs? Or are they the 401 K crowd that allows their money to hit the market automatically ? They I guess would be amateurs but they dont short.

This is all end of day trading. Anyone who trades the EOD Rydex funds are amateurs. No professional would put money there. Not only that but since there are better alternatives at Rydex, use of Nova and Ursa is evidence of serious unsophistication.

You have a point, however, on the amount of money. There aren't a whole lot of amateurs playing the game. They may not be exploitable, by themselves.

Then again there are others who might pick up the slack...

M

[OEXCHAOS]

The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds.

The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right?


M

Dang, and here I was feeling pretty smart about shorting the YM (I posted the YM) and the ES Friday, and closing out late in the day for a very nice profit. But if that was "amateur", give me amateur any day.

IT

When you took the profit you left the company of amateurs.

M

[iloli way]

Same same on SPX Hourly... da JAWS..

So I see also a "jaw" on last monday, 10-1 PM.

Will Tues and rest of the week rereat last week's history? Now that Q1 draw to an end, "window breaking" instead of "window dressing" as business usaual NOT this time?

Got to favor a retracement rally in April, even in a two step forward, one step back fashion.

gf