The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds.
The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right?
M
Anything to back that up ie that the "biggest" amateurs were shorting?
Depends what and what time on Friday they put on the shorts and if in the morning they are still in the money. So even if they are amateurs they made money against the professional bulls who went long on Friday morning.
I really doubt there are amateurs in this market. Do you consider Bear Stearns to have been a company of amateurs? They went bankrupt trading. Or Citi? Or Society General? Who exactly are these amateurs? Or are they the 401 K crowd that allows their money to hit the market automatically ? They I guess would be amateurs but they dont short.
This is all end of day trading. Anyone who trades the EOD Rydex funds are amateurs. No professional would put money there. Not only that but since there are better alternatives at Rydex, use of Nova and Ursa is evidence of serious unsophistication.
You have a point, however, on the amount of money. There aren't a whole lot of amateurs playing the game. They may not be exploitable, by themselves.
Then again there are others who might pick up the slack...
M