28 replies to this topic

[rigelpug]

Today is the lightest Nasdaq daily volume of the year based on present run rate. If you see a new high now in the next 20 min., probabilities are your long is good to go...

You have to admire the bulls, charging up a mountain with a blizzard in their face. I feel cheated that I cannot live my life with such confidence.

[OEXCHAOS]

I missed my shot thanks to a limit order. Time for lunch and we'll look again. Mark

[OEXCHAOS]

The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds. The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right? M

[SemiBizz]

Well, those same amateurs are going long today, so there's another opportunity just ahead... The volume is light today and we all know the number they need to close on... no mystery there.

Edited by SemiBizz, 31 March 2008 - 12:11 PM.

[rigelpug]

The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds.

The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right?


M

Totally agree, Friday looked fake.

[OEXCHAOS]

Well, those same amateurs are going long today, so there's another opportunity just ahead...

The volume is light today and we all know the number they need to close on... no mystery there.

REALLY?

How are you ascertaining that?

I have hard data reported daily and it's unambiguous. I.e. those shorting were using high fee, illiquid instruments and the were doing so in a size I haven't seen in some time. As for today, well, I did a little buying and so far, I'm up just shy of 1%. We'll see if it holds. It's not a big position in the managed accounts.


M

[zedor]

The more folks you have lined up against you, the better your odds.

The biggest amateurs on the street were shorting on Friday. What are the odds of them being right?


M

Anything to back that up ie that the "biggest" amateurs were shorting?

Depends what and what time on Friday they put on the shorts and if in the morning they are still in the money. So even if they are amateurs they made money against the professional bulls who went long on Friday morning.

I really doubt there are amateurs in this market. Do you consider Bear Stearns to have been a company of amateurs? They went bankrupt trading. Or Citi? Or Society General? Who exactly are these amateurs? Or are they the 401 K crowd that allows their money to hit the market automatically ? They I guess would be amateurs but they dont short.

[SemiBizz]

Well, those same amateurs are going long today, so there's another opportunity just ahead...

The volume is light today and we all know the number they need to close on... no mystery there.

REALLY?

How are you ascertaining that?

M

VOLUME - See the "JAWS" pattern of price and volume? <

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 31 March 2008 - 12:26 PM.

[selecto]

Just look at the intraday mo. The only safe trade today is long (so far) I am short qid from 10:57.

[SemiBizz]

Now let's contrast it with QID... Quality of Volume up... lighter volume pullback on the way down...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

My best guess here is a test of 48.50 and rebound... based on present data...