28 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I need a little pullback but I'm thinking that long is the way to go. The late volume was Bullish and we got a perfect looking volume pattern this morning and turned the 5' trend. M

[bobalou]

try some were around 12.37 pm if it is a low

[SemiBizz]

If you look at your SPX hourly, you shouldn't make any long entry until 1313 gets tested (last candle low of volume) that is based on best risk/reward.... Alternatively you could wait for a breakout over 1327 and hold for 1335 or so. By the way, I did listen to your interview and I think you are missing something very important and that is that you ASSUME that the "bears" are going to stubbornly hold positions. I think there is more than ample evidence right here on the board, that it is the "bulls" that are the ones that are holding with a "no-stop" mindset. The bears have had 5 long years of learning to use stops and take profits... Now if you want to trade with the trend today, you wait for 1321 to give way, short and cover at 1313.

[SemiBizz]

It's also pretty obvious based on present condition of the 5 min SPX that 1314 wants to be tested (#3 candle 9:40) Also note your candle trend just turned DOWN on the 5 min. Now that can be tricky on light volume days... sometimes you get a false signal. Finally... based on the time here, I would make no move until we are in the 12:40 - 1:15 window... If you see a new high or low, you can join that trend on a retracement and hold for a test after 1:15.

Edited by SemiBizz, 31 March 2008 - 11:34 AM.

[rigelpug]

It's also pretty obvious based on present condition of the 5 min SPX that 1314 wants to be tested (#3 candle 9:40)

Also note your candle trend just turned DOWN on the 5 min. Now that can be tricky on light volume days... sometimes you get a false signal.

Finally... based on the time here, I would make no move until we are in the 12:40 - 1:15 window... If you see a new high or low, you can join that trend on a retracement and hold for a test after 1:15.

I will be shocked to see any insane bullishness until we test lower than 1300.

[OEXCHAOS]

If the trend turns back down according to my measures, we back away. Right now, we're still working an order. This methodology has pretty darned good results. Few big hits, some nice trades and not many losers. M

[TrillionDollarMan]

I show a 15 min gap on SP500 index, not SPY, just above 1292. To me, THAT fill on appropriate Ord-like volume will be THE buy, if I shud be so lucky to have it play out "my" way. Today's rise is not on the strongest volume, but IS in line with Fosback's month end fx, as all know. To ME, the question is....if we rally to Bradley date on 4/7/08, then chop/decline to Bradley date of 4/27/08, just in front of FED announcement of 4/30. If we bounce enuf here, they could spend the rest of the month meandering down to the 1292, really. THEN, if Amanita Bradley line drawing is inverted...we can rally from the April/June time frame right to December and new stock index ath's in a classic elekshun rally. Just when they get ready to "sell in May and go away", cud be the time to buy, buy, buy? TDM

[SemiBizz]

Today is the lightest Nasdaq daily volume of the year based on present run rate. If you see a new high now in the next 20 min., probabilities are your long is good to go...

Edited by SemiBizz, 31 March 2008 - 11:55 AM.

[SemiBizz]

So, there u go... 1327.1331, 1334, 1337. pick your exit.

[blustar]

I'm long at 1322 SPX. I believe we are good to go. Strong rally this week indicated. 8 Day cycle top should be in the April 3-7 zone time window.