128 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

Posted today (9/22) on Fearless Forecasters.

It is day ten in the rally on the NYSI buy signal on 9/8/09, and the NYMO is turning up again with another low above a low possibly ending the consolidation of the past three days. This is another opportunity, another station on the current NYSI train route (the previous stations are marked below), to get with the trend. Could be considerable risk here -- this just feels like this train could derail any moment.

Highlighing TNA because it is up nearly 25 percent since the buy on 9/8.

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.c...44&are=5154.png

http://stockcharts.c...64&are=9201.png

[diogenes227]

And this refresher on the NASI signals, also on Fearless Forecasters (9/22).

Simplify, simplify, simplify

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p61328970666&a=163053777&are=5258.png

[diogenes227]

Had a NYSI sell by a few points yesterday which I missed because it must have happened virtually on the last tick. Did not get a sell on the NASI. Diabolical market. The long leveraged ETF basket -- SDS, QID, TWM -- was up 9.4 percent on the close yesterday. It had early strength today, up more than 10 percent, and now up 9.6 percent. When the signal (if one is playing the NYSI exclusively) comes like that at the last moment, the next morning's open (strong or weak) is an obvious exit, as well as a short entry on the oppsite side. Good trading to everyone.

Edited by diogenes227, 24 September 2009 - 09:00 AM.

[diogenes227]

Had a NYSI sell by a few points yesterday which I missed because it must have happened virtually on the last tick. Did not get a sell on the NASI. Diabolical market.

The long leveraged ETF basket -- SDS, QID, TWM -- was up 9.4 percent on the close yesterday. It had early strength today, up more than 10 percent, and now up 9.6 percent. When the signal (if one is playing the NYSI exclusively) comes like that at the last moment, the next morning's open (strong or weak) is an obvious exit, as well as a short entry on the oppsite side.

Good trading to everyone.

Excuse me -- the long ETF basket is SSO, QLD, UWM of course. Too early in the day for me again. SDS, QID, and TWM are the short basket.

[darnelds]

Thank you for posting these updates on NYSI and NASI.

[diogenes227]

This is a sell now on both the NYSI and NASI. The short leveraged ETF basket is now in play -- SDS, QID, TWM -- on both. More discussion later.

[diogenes227]

This is a sell now on both the NYSI and NASI. The short leveraged ETF basket is now in play -- SDS, QID, TWM -- on both.

More discussion later.

What a bull! Don't even have time to discuss a sell signal before the market eats the short alive. The short basket above, put on on the NYSI downturn (9/23), just came back to break even after being up nearly 6 percent. And on the NASI sell a day later it's already down more than 3 percent.

At the moment, the McClellan Oscillators are not up so this is just an bounce from oversold but what a bounce! If it can turn down intraday, it's still a short but a dangerous one.

I'd like to reiterate what I posted on September 9th in #83 of this thread above:

"One other comment: once again the market's tone is obvious -- it does not sell off readily when it's overbought and it rallies like mad nearly the second it's oversold. That may not continue in this seasonally negative period (September/October) but for now it is was it is."

Good trading to everyone.

[edamat]

what would you do in this situation, Dio.? out of inverse funds or continue to hold? just trying to learn... much thanks in advance...

[diogenes227]

what would you do in this situation, Dio.? out of inverse funds or continue to hold? just trying to learn...

much thanks in advance...

Personally, if I'm up 5 percent and that profit evaporates (like now), I'd stop it out at break even.

But this is a tough question because risk tolerance is individual. If you're working with a particular system, you have to decide for yourself how much pullback or draw down you can stand.

The next -- and maybe more important -- question might be how do you get back in if you're stopped out and the trade takes off again with the trend. For instance, I'm going to continue to record the results of the Sum sell signal here, but I'm in cash because this has gone too much against my position despite the fact the NYSI trend is still down.

So how to get back in? Linda Raschke, a great futures trader, once suggested the way to get with a trend when you out of it is to wait for a down day and buy the next up day in an uptrend, and wait for an up day and buy the next down day in a down trend. Her suggestion is as good as any. It is illustrated by the red down arrows during down trends below:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p23887243983&a=172550633&are=3464.png

[diogenes227]

Short the market again using the leveraged ETF basket -- SDS, QID, TWM. Good trading to everyone.