have we topped out?
#11
Posted 14 October 2007 - 07:34 PM
#12
Posted 14 October 2007 - 07:54 PM
#13
Posted 15 October 2007 - 05:06 AM
You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.
Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.
#14
Posted 15 October 2007 - 08:50 AM
You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.
Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.
I think last thursday was the top
#15
Posted 15 October 2007 - 09:10 AM
You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.
Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.
I think last thursday was the top
So did you go short today ?
#16
Posted 15 October 2007 - 09:19 AM
You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.
Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.
I think last thursday was the top
So did you go short today ?
Yes shorted ES @ 73...
BUT here is the wild card.
SOX/NDX ratio is so oversold that historically almost always produced a sharp scorch...
therefore i have a very tight stop on this one... about where i shorted
PS: they did not remove MXIM from SOX (only SMH) so this oversold condition was not caused by any adjustment.. all natural.
Edited by A-ha, 15 October 2007 - 09:22 AM.
#17
Posted 15 October 2007 - 09:29 AM
#18
Posted 15 October 2007 - 09:34 AM
SOX looks like its straining with all its feeble might not to trace a H&S.
But A-ha, what about the USD wild card? Dollar looks to me like it's forming a temporary base...
I think Dollar is quite near its long term bottom.
I was expecting 76-77 but perfection never works in this thing...
I expect dollar to rally about %60 in the next 4 years
BTW I like your avatar...
Edited by A-ha, 15 October 2007 - 09:36 AM.
#19
Posted 15 October 2007 - 09:48 AM
I think Dollar is quite near its long term bottom.
I was expecting 76-77 but perfection never works in this thing...
I expect dollar to rally about %60 in the next 4 years
For this dramatic an appreciation to happen, I feel like we are going to need to see:
global economic growth slows significantly (maybe MSCI EM crash) --) risk-appetite and risk-asset correlation decrease markedly &/or US rates go up --) specs stop chasing high-beta currencies like AUD, CAD, etc --) USD gets more inflows/repatriation
As long as we are the puny kid on the economic playground, USD wallows.
BTW I like your avatar...
Thanks. Have you seen the film?
Edited by MacRo, 15 October 2007 - 09:49 AM.
#20
Posted 15 October 2007 - 10:03 AM