Who's NOT Buying This Rally?

Well, not only do I pay attention to fundamentals, as a business owner for over 35 years, I am forced to face them day in and day out on many levels. In fact, I'm in an industry that was sacrificed by trade policies back in 1995. So for me to be bullish to any degree, while I see and feel an entire industry being decimated around me since that time, I myself am amazed that I can keep from screaming as loud as any bear that's either posted here or otherwise.

Fundamental statistics have been quoted for years, and because of this, many folks have lost the ability to create wealth from this same information. I suppose this goes back to the time to where man made his first trade between a spearhead and a stick, or a carcass and a flint, and provided data to show why something was worth more (or less) than before. The beauty though of technical analysis is that everything fundamental, without exception, is based on these same pieces of economic information that are not only known, but what statistically "should happen" given what we've learned from the past. This "analysis of opinion" gives us a way to cheat on what future fundamental expectations (fall out) will or can be given a constant (government stability, etc.).

Now, I don't know how long you've been directly doing this (for me, 38 years), but if you're in this business (or any business) long enough, you'll start to realize that the play is always the same, but the players are always different. It's sort of like fashion...when see kids wearing the same thing you wore when you were his or her age and they call it "new", and you just have to smile as you've seen it all before. Nothing different here too.

Now, you, arb and others are really sticking your collective necks out right now in the face of ever increasing liquidity levels that causes many boats to rise with this same tidal effect. I, for one, highly appreciate your sharing of these views as it provides the board with necessary balance. But your use of already known fundamentals to justify your bearish stances may be hurting your objectivity more than helping to state your case on a public forum. Granted, you might be right, but it's in the area of timing that separates the wheat from the chafe as far as making your points relative to this same wealth creation medium, no less, being sucked into a whirlpool of disenchantment.

On a technical basis, however, there is just too much buoyancy in the marketplace to be looking for a top of any significance at this time. It could be a month from now, or it might be a year from now. Realistically, no one really knows the future be it a human, dog or worm. We can only speculate on this kind of expectation. However, just like in fundamental analysis, there are also constants when it comes to technical analysis as well. And it is from this area from where I come from. I have learned over time to respect the art of Technical Analysis as being of utmost importance in trying to separate the emotion that distractions cause (the wheat) from what's truly consequential (the chafe) in bettering ones trading account's bottom line. If things change, I will share that as well as I believe it's important to make as much money as we can, when we can. Whether prices move higher or lower makes absolutely no difference to me (nor it should to anyone else) as we have many products out there these days that can take advantage of any or all future situations that are presented.

I hope you took this post in the positive spirit in which it was intended, and may 2010 be profitable year for you and for everyone reading this.

Fib

Fib, while our methods of technical analysis may be quite different from time to time (though perhaps less different than you might imagine), I truly appreciate this excellent overview of trading/market philosophy, and wholeheartedly agree! All that really matters to a successful trader is the direction of the market(s). While others constantly try to explain why the market "has it wrong", successful traders endeavor only, to the best of their ability, to be correct with the market, realizing that while WE may be wrong (and often are), the market is never wrong. The market is just the market - and our job is to be right with it..... {the market}. While others constantly ask "why?", winning traders only ask "when?"

Thanks for your posts and best regards, D

Edited by IYB, 28 December 2009 - 09:07 PM.

successful traders endeavor only, to the best of their ability, to be correct with the market, realizing that while WE may be wrong (and often are), the market is never wrong.

Hye IYB,

If the market's "NEVER WRONG", then why are there "Market Corrections"? How do you correct something that's always correct, or right?

successful traders endeavor only, to the best of their ability, to be correct with the market, realizing that while WE may be wrong (and often are), the market is never wrong.

Hye IYB,

If the market's "NEVER WRONG", then why are there "Market Corrections"? How do you correct something that's always correct, or right?

What I am saying is that it is the movements of the market, including its corrections, that we are endeavoring to correctly anticipate and play. Our goal is to be right with the market, not to judge whether the market is right or wrong. Right or wrong have no meaning to me when I look at the market. It only makes sense for me to judge whether I am right or wrong wrt the market.

That's my view, and I am willing to accept that you may look at it differently, Best Regards, D

This has been a great thread from a few smart guys. But don't let your brains and ego get in your way of being right or making money. What do we know? We have been in a long term bear sideways market for about 10 yrs now. And will probably continue for a few more yrs. We're stuck in a trading range till it's over. There's not much use arguing about where the next top or bottom is as nobody knows. The top may be right now, or 20% higher.. or with a minor correction or none at all.....

Our goal is to be right with the market, not to judge whether the market is right or wrong.

Hey IYB,

This is a sincere question, or rather, a curiosity about traders who believe that the market's never wrong. Say, for an instance, today, the Naz advance 0.24% while the internals are listed as below:

41.38% Advancing Issues
49.13% Declining Issues

48.87% Up Volume
49.44% Down Volume

Do you think that these internals reflect the strength of the market? If not, then would there be a need for "correction" in order to revert to the mean sometime?

Thanks

Edited by TechMan, 28 December 2009 - 09:27 PM.

Our goal is to be right with the market, not to judge whether the market is right or wrong.

Hey IYB,

This is a sincere question, or rather, a curiosity about traders who believe that the market's never wrong. Say, for an instance, today, the Naz advance 0.24% while the internals are listed as below:

41.38% Advancing Issues
49.13% Declining Issues

48.87% Up Volume
49.44% Down Volume

Do you think that these internals reflect the strength of the market? If not, then would there be a need for "correction" in order to revert to the mean sometime?

Thanks

The numbers you site above imply, ceteris paribus, short term weakness ahead. Of course nothing ever is ceteris peribus (all else remaining the same) in the real world, is it? It's just one of a whole lot of factors we should consider. I'm looking for a pullback into the 30th/31st fwiw. And if that doesn't happen, of course, I'm wrong about that - not the market.

So back to the "the market is always right" idea. By that I do not mean that it never gets overbought or oversold, or carried away to speculative extremes or excesses in a whole lot of ways -- because it most assuredly does. By "the market is always right" I mean one very precise thing: That our job is to be right with the market no matter what "crazy thing" it may be doing at the given time or why. The market is the target. It isn't right or wrong. We are right or wrong. The market just is.

Regards, D

maybe thisll help?

http://www.decisionp.../MCCLELLAN.html

The numbers you site above imply, ceteris paribus, short term weakness ahead. Of course nothing ever is ceteris peribus (all else remaining the same) in the real world, is it? It's just one of a whole lot of factors we should consider. I'm looking for a pullback into the 30th/31st fwiw. And if that doesn't happen, of course, I'm wrong about that - not the market.

So back to the "the market is always right" idea. By that I do not mean that it never gets overbought or oversold, or carried away to speculative extremes or excesses in a whole lot of ways -- because it most assuredly does. By "the market is always right" I mean one very precise thing: That our job is to be right with the market no matter what "crazy thing" it may be doing at the given time or why. The market is the target. It isn't right or wrong. We are right or wrong. The market just is.

Fair enough. Thanks for the clarification. It's getting late... We'll have to pick this up some other time.

Have a great evening!

And, I'm assuming that you pay no attention to the fundamentals, as per your comment above. I, on the other hand, pay attention to everything that I can get my hands on.

Well, not only do I pay attention to fundamentals, as a business owner for over 35 years, I am forced to face them day in and day out on many levels. In fact, I'm in an industry that was sacrificed by trade policies back in 1995. So for me to be bullish to any degree, while I see and feel an entire industry being decimated around me since that time, I myself am amazed that I can keep from screaming as loud as any bear that's either posted here or otherwise.

Fundamental statistics have been quoted for years, and because of this, many folks have lost the ability to create wealth from this same information. I suppose this goes back to the time to where man made his first trade between a spearhead and a stick, or a carcass and a flint, and provided data to show why something was worth more (or less) than before. The beauty though of technical analysis is that everything fundamental, without exception, is based on these same pieces of economic information that are not only known, but what statistically "should happen" given what we've learned from the past. This "analysis of opinion" gives us a way to cheat on what future fundamental expectations (fall out) will or can be given a constant (government stability, etc.).

Now, I don't know how long you've been directly doing this (for me, 38 years), but if you're in this business (or any business) long enough, you'll start to realize that the play is always the same, but the players are always different. It's sort of like fashion...when see kids wearing the same thing you wore when you were his or her age and they call it "new", and you just have to smile as you've seen it all before. Nothing different here too.

Now, you, arb and others are really sticking your collective necks out right now in the face of ever increasing liquidity levels that causes many boats to rise with this same tidal effect. I, for one, highly appreciate your sharing of these views as it provides the board with necessary balance. But your use of already known fundamentals to justify your bearish stances may be hurting your objectivity more than helping to state your case on a public forum. Granted, you might be right, but it's in the area of timing that separates the wheat from the chafe as far as making your points relative to this same wealth creation medium, no less, being sucked into a whirlpool of disenchantment.

On a technical basis, however, there is just too much buoyancy in the marketplace to be looking for a top of any significance at this time. It could be a month from now, or it might be a year from now. Realistically, no one really knows the future be it a human, dog or worm. We can only speculate on this kind of expectation. However, just like in fundamental analysis, there are also constants when it comes to technical analysis as well. And it is from this area from where I come from. I have learned over time to respect the art of Technical Analysis as being of utmost importance in trying to separate the emotion that distractions cause (the wheat) from what's truly consequential (the chafe) in bettering ones trading account's bottom line. If things change, I will share that as well as I believe it's important to make as much money as we can, when we can. Whether prices move higher or lower makes absolutely no difference to me (nor it should to anyone else) as we have many products out there these days that can take advantage of any or all future situations that are presented.

I hope you took this post in the positive spirit in which it was intended, and may 2010 be profitable year for you and for everyone reading this.

Fib

Well said Fib.