if one looks at the 87 crash , 50 yrs prior , 37, after a strong advance from 32 lows the market advanced 5 yrs, setting up
the 37 crash. 37 crash began in august so did the 87 crash, i shorted the 87 crash after the rally in august , which set up
lower highs. gann thought yrs of 7 were bearish. 17 on deck!
now using the 40 yr cycle gold bottomed in 76 after being cut in 1/2 the largest recession since the great depression at that
time. so , i think we are on precipice of a decline in the broad market again, the top has been forming for a couple of years now
my questions are what happens to the dollar????? in the past, when there was contraction folks ran to the buck. and that is where
armstrong and his clone edelson sit. i wonder will that be the case again. or w/the gargantuan debt piled up in the dollar cause
folks to sell. china and saudi arabia are in that camp. they have been big sellers of us debt.
in past declines:87,01,08-09 in the broad market everything got sold!!! the miners got trounced in each of those declines , which
ultimately led to strong rallies in 01 and 08-09. will it be different this time?????/ i suspect not. folks play on margin and are
forced to liquidate positions. what i do see is successful prominent fund managers taking significant positions in gold/miners
so they will support their positions. but after the pullback. which i see going into the 1180ish area. yes, i am very very bullish
but declines are part of the process.
keeps some powder dry their will be bargains
dharma
Edited by dharma, 29 October 2016 - 11:27 AM.