YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register 

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

Surprising to me on such an outsized rally. Cumulative Breadth was up, though, so I'm not sure how much to read into this sitch.

I can tell you this, everything went negative Friday. When everything goes negative, it's just about rally time.

M

According to my risk summation system, the days this week or so with the highest probability of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday October 13th and a window stretching from this Friday October 17th through next Tuesday October 21st.

Last week the summation peak on Wednesday October 8th seen in the marketwatch.com plot below tagged the turn down which culminated in the Friday smash down.

My prediction in last week's turn window thread of an elevated risk of a flash crash didn't wait long to work out although Friday's action should probably be called a crashette rather than a crash since 1000 DOW points isn't what it used to be, now only about a 2% drop, nothing to lose sleep over.  Today the rapid retracement I noted is taking place, thank you POTUS whose TACO on all the tough China talk this weekend clearly put a fire under the market.  The budget government closure is still being roundly ignored based on past opposition behaviour.  I still think that this could yet prove problematic.  

The Friday October 17th through Tuesday October 21st turn window is also a crash risk window, but given that no high formed in September, the probability of it working out is even more abysmal than normal.  Also the crashette last Friday probably drained some of the pent-up selling pressure making a crash so soon even less likely.  IF the high which formed on October 3rd holds, another crash risk window may develop in November.  More on that later.

I also posted some rudimentary EWave potential counts for gold last week both of which are still in play along with a pun that obviously went over like a lead balloon.  This past weekend I got an even more significant indication that this gold thing is long in the tooth.  My brother-in-law out of the blue asked my advice on buying gold.  He never, and I mean never asks my advice about anything to do with investing.  If gold fever has permeated this deep, it's got to be near a reckoning.  

Regards,

Douglas

eom

Closed my "suicidal" LONGS ES, NQ, YM opened Friday, small profit, relatively, but still holding CALLS, simply because I cannot close them now!

My FF is bounce, attract LONGS, lower OCT low, maybe into OPEX Thursday/Friday, then huge bounce with punishing swings down. 

I will add LONGS on lower OCT LOW  - CALLS on indices, stocks, and also IBIT crypto ETF

 

1 each  @ 6658

will add below ES 6630

May start new SPY, DIA  & QQQ CALL position, NOVEMBER, below ES 6640 if traded today

 

 

1 each  @ 6658

will add below ES 6630

May start new SPY, DIA  & QQQ CALL position, NOVEMBER, below ES 6640 if traded today

 

 

1 each  @ 6658

will add below ES 6630

May start new SPY, DIA  & QQQ CALL position, NOVEMBER, below ES 6640 if traded today

 

 

1 each  @ 6658

will add below ES 6630

May start new SPY, DIA  & QQQ CALL position, NOVEMBER, below ES 6640 if traded today