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According to my risk summation system, the whole of next week is a turn risk window.  Every day has a high summation reading.  Not sure what to make of it, maybe next week will be a whipsaw buzzsaw with lots of turns up and down, or maybe just one big, important turn.  Not much use I realize, but as I like to say, it is what it is.  

Last week the risk windows in red below tagged the lows during a 500 point contracting triangle consolidation trading week.

The triangle above looks ready for a breakout which I assume will set the trading direction for at least a few days.  Given the recent trading direction bias, you have to think the breakout will be up.  The middle of next week is one of the several market top turn windows projected by my crash risk window system that I mentioned in a note a week or so ago in a post.  Unfortunately the crash risk window system has numerous projections for this top scattered across September, so not very useful for timing.  All I really can glean from this part of the system is that there should be a significant top sometime in September.  I should clarify that this is a  projection for a top, not a crash.  Projections for a crash occur later in the fall.

Regards,

Douglas

Just for fun I asked A.I., "How do  NYSE stocks fare after Labor day?"

Thinking...

Kicking off 6 searches...

Looking at 92 sites...

Putting it all together: Historical Trends: September, according to multiple sources: 

 
September has historically been the worst-performing month for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite since 1950.
The S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.7% in September over the past 75 years, making it the worst-performing month.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 1.2% in September, underperforming all other months.
September returns have been negative 55% of the time since 1928, compared to 39% for all other months.

Nine of the 40 worst monthly losses in the S&P 500 have occurred in September, more than any other month.
However, it's important to note that this is an average, and September is not always the worst month.
In recent years, the median return for September has actually been positive, suggesting the negative average is skewed by some particularly bad Septembers. 

Potential Reasons for Underperformance
Summer vacations: Trading volumes tend to be lower during the summer months as many investors are on vacation.
Rebalancing: Investors may rebalance their portfolios in September after returning from summer vacations, leading to increased selling pressure.
Mutual fund activity: September is the end of the fiscal year for many mutual funds, and managers may sell off losing positions to lock in tax benefits.
Investor psychology: The belief that September is a bad month for stocks can create a self-fulfilling prophecy, as investors may sell preemptively.
Economic factors: September often coincides with the release of important economic data, which can influence market sentiment. 

Important Considerations
While historical trends suggest underperformance in September, it's not a guarantee.
Market timing based on seasonal trends is difficult, and trying to time the market can lead to missed opportunities.

Recent Market Performance (August 2025)
Major US stock market indexes, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, experienced gains in August 2025.
However, concerns about inflation and potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes were also present.   Investors were also awaiting the August jobs report and other economic data releases in early September, which could influence future market movements. 

Conclusion
Based on historical trends, NYSE stocks and the broader US stock market may experience some weakness in September. However, it's important to remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and investors should focus on a long-term investment strategy. Recent market performance has been positive, but concerns about inflation and potential interest rate hikes remain. Key economic data releases in early September could also impact market sentiment.

On Aug 17th I posted this:

<<<FEARLESS FORECAST:

The cycles I’ve been following for decades, as well as elements my analysis has evolved with, point to a potential Black Swan type selloff in the near future, tipping between now and three weeks from now, stretching into September.  
This will be the kind of affair that will offer profits of 10-30x investment in put options (the timing is key).  >>>
 

UPDATE:

We are in a high risk window for a market selloff. I exited prior puts during the recent down draft with intention of re-entering puts 8/27-9/2.  (In fact, I purchased SPX calls on Thurs 8/21, exiting the next morning for 112% gain but it was only to take advantage of an oversold condition that coincided with a cycle turn on 8/21-8/22, more luck than skill, and I’ll take it!).

I entered SPX Oct 7th puts yesterday and 9/29 puts today.  I have no idea what the catalyst will be but there’s a copious amount of crazy crap going on from the Bankrupt E.U. to a potential violent false flag event or a financial panic of some sort. It doesn’t matter, the markets are ripe for a large selloff. 
 

On Aug 17th I posted this:

<<<FEARLESS FORECAST:

The cycles I’ve been following for decades, as well as elements my analysis has evolved with, point to a potential Black Swan type selloff in the near future, tipping between now and three weeks from now, stretching into September.  
This will be the kind of affair that will offer profits of 10-30x investment in put options (the timing is key).  >>>
 

UPDATE:

We are in a high risk window for a market selloff. I exited prior puts during the recent down draft with intention of re-entering puts 8/27-9/2.  (In fact, I purchased SPX calls on Thurs 8/21, exiting the next morning for 112% gain but it was only to take advantage of an oversold condition that coincided with a cycle turn on 8/21-8/22, more luck than skill, and I’ll take it!).

I entered SPX Oct 7th puts yesterday and 9/29 puts today.  I have no idea what the catalyst will be but there’s a copious amount of crazy crap going on from the Bankrupt E.U. to a potential violent false flag event or a financial panic of some sort. It doesn’t matter, the markets are ripe for a large selloff.