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Definitely, FED has to cut after that CHALLENGER report. While I bullish now I am not sure the SANTA RALLY will start before FED meeting.  POWELL should go out on a positive note instead of his puzzling resistance and hesitation.  I do not have confidence in him. 

FUNDSTRAT: "even with the recent declines, Head of Research Tom Lee expects that November will be an up month for stocks, especially once investors are done climbing this wall of worry that includes everything from the government shutdown to the result of the New York City mayoral race and private credit stress.

“Keep in mind that worries, especially walls of worries, eventually get resolved, and then they become tailwinds,” Lee said. 

He expects that there will be a couple choppy weeks in the beginning but then a rally later in the month. 

He likes that third-quarter earnings show that margins are expanding for seven out of 11 sectors, a welcome surprise for those who had thought that margins would collapse by this quarter because of tariffs.  

He also said this week that the AI supercycle remains alive and well. 

Newton’s in agreement with Lee there. “For those worried about a larger correction, you need to see evidence of that in stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Tesla, and they all still look very, very good,” he said. “So it’s tough to make too bearish a case.”

According to my turn probability summation system, the days in the next week or so with the highest probability of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday November 10th through the morning of Tuesday November 11th and the afternoon of Thursday November 13th through Monday November 17th.

Last week shown in the marketwatch.com plot below the Monday November 3rd window just caught a piece of the trend down, no turn, no real acceleration, so it was a dud.  The Friday the 7th window may have caught a bottom of some degree in the DJIA given the big reversal that day.

Not to sound like Chicken Little, well maybe a bit, Monday November 17th is another crash risk window, but its development has been poor given it required a top in the DJIA to occur on about October 3rd to enable the risk, but the actual top was much later on October 29th.  Also for this crash risk window to be enabled the DJIA must be oversold going into November 17th, so the turnaround which began this past Friday will have to fail early this coming week and the DJIA will need to head south in a hurry.  So given all this, the odds of this particular crash risk window working out is extra low.  

Regards,

Douglas

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Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



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