According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest odds of seeing a turn in or an acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday October 5th which may just be a continuation of this past week's Thursday-Friday turn window and Wednesday October 7th.  

Last week the Thursday October 1st thru Friday the 2nd turn window shown in red on the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below caught a low the importance of which will be determined by action early this coming week.  This turn up might be quite short lived if Monday's turn window is not part of the late past week window.

As I noted in last week's turn window post, this coming week is the next crash risk window peaking right in the mid-week turn window noted above.  As I have countless times pointed out, the odds of these actually tagging a crash are extremely low.  There are several of these crash risk windows each year and despite (or probably because of) my diligence in pointing them out, not a single one has tagged a crash since I have started noting them.  So much for my prognostication skills, even a broken clock is right twice a day.  

If a sell off in the DJIA actually does ever occur in the coming months, it will probably be the last gasp of a bear market that has lasted 26 years.  What bear market you say, the one in the real DJIA shown below.  The DJIA divided by gold peaked in 2000 and has been in a down trend ever since.  This real DJIA appears to be on the cusp of completing three large waves down.  Can't say if that will be due to the DJIA rising or gold falling or a bit of both.  Sometime between now and the end of 2027, a real barn burner of a bull market in the real DJIA should get rolling.

For the crash window to work requires a black swan.  In 1987 the then Treasury secretary James Baker trash talking a rapidly falling dollar was pointed to as the black swan causing the stock market crash.  This past week our illustrious leader trash talked US Treasuries noting that inflation could be easily used to pay off the massive 40 trillion deficit (see Fortune Magazine article published on October the 2nd).  It is not clear if sovereigns holding Treasuries got the memo yet or read Fortune Magazine, but enough inflation to wipe out the US deficit would make those countries treasury holdings pretty much worthless.  A stampede out of treasuries would be just the black swan needed to light off a crash.  The POTUS may get away with his treasury trash talking since he does so much of it that hardly anyone notices anymore, but if the wrong ones do take note, Katy better bar the door.

Regards,

Douglas

for example....da cheif ?  And many others as well ? Please get back, we need eveybody's contribute.  

This recent pull back from the top 7 TD's ago, looks like a B Wave pullback pursuant to a C Wave impulse higher, A being the FED low, but the E Wave structure is something totally different, because we are in a complex Z wave, that is an a-b-c X down  (last Tuesday to Thursday, off the Mercury sextile to Jupiter) and now a w-x-y Y of Z. 

We are completing the [x] now and the next wave up, [y] of Y, should take us to 7837ish SPX by early Monday, that is new highs, which they will sell into WED down to about 7420ish. The broad market is not partticipating in this rally, so it is a case of inter market bearish divergence, but not a momentum divergence (NEG D).

When the old generals lead the charge at this stage of the game, watch out below because "the troops ain't with 'em". The generals will lead one more charge into Oct 16 and likely will pull the soldiers with them (because it will be the last, or C of {Y} charge) but they will lag (not make new highs) The Russell 2000 small cap is the worst of the indexes, likely due to the increase in interest rates due to our US Treasury sell-offs.

From Oct 16-Nov 12 I see a massive 40% sell-off on the SPX and higher on the NDX!

then upside resolution whatever the result that will come out. That's what I'm considering most probable.   

According to my turn probability summation system's peak readings, the days this coming week most likely to see a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Thursday October 1 & Friday October 2nd.  The turn summation value for Wednesday is also quite high, so maybe some sort of whipsaw affair in the last three days of the week is possible.

Last week the Monday September 21st turn window seen in the first red bracket on the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below, more or less tagged the DJIA high trading range for the week with the exact high in very early trading on Tuesday.  Exactly what last Friday's turn window was pointing to will have to wait on trading this coming Monday.

The next couple of weeks are filled with cycle turn land mines just waiting for the unsuspecting to step on.  The week after this coming week hosts the latest crash risk window which in order to work requires the market to be oversold and for a black swan event to occur, a tall order probability wise, so a very low likelihood of occurring, but given the current wars situations, definitely not a zero risk, but you can probably bet your bottom dollar that the ex hedge fund manager duo running Treasury and the Fed will absolutely meet any market tail spin down with an immediate flood of funny money to quickly stem the drop, so a one day or two day at most slide is about all the bears can hope for. 

If no serious sell off does occur between now and November 9th with all the cycles bottoming, a melt up is possible.  Hard to believe at these nose bleed valuation levels, but short covering and the post-election relief may provide powerful fuel for a rally if the black swans decide to play chicken and roost, not fly during the crash window.

Regards,

Douglas