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marked by a Chinese attack to Taiwan ? I've got a year end-early next year critical time window and I'm wondering what might cause the market to drop. 

February 2020 covid, February 2022 Russian attack to Ukraine, February 2026 Chinese attack to Taiwan ? 

The risk summation system indicates that risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is fairly uniformly elevated for every cotton picking day this week, so, pretty useless, although this structure  might mean possible whipsaw action.

Last week the risk window mid-week in red below tagged a low, but if the futures action this morning is any sign of the trading in the next few days, that low might not be all that significant. 

As I noted above, futures are lower this morning apparently due to Moody's downgrading US debt.  That US long term debt is worthless is obvious.  I don't need the geniuses at Moody's who missed the whole GFC housing debacle to tell me that.  Who in their right mind believes the US will ever pay off their enormous debt in real terms?  They're simply going to print funny money until it's worthless and pay the debt off, slowly at first, then suddenly, like all Hemingway-esque bankruptcies.  The trick, as always, is to do it slowly so the gormless bond holding frogs don't jump out of the boiling pot too soon.  

The green triangle posted last week shown in the plot below did indeed point to a turn, but as noted above, it may not amount to much.  The red channel is still in play.  The blue interior trend I added also might be worth paying attention to in any correction.  The purple triangle is my vain attempt to revive the rising wedge with its potential negative connotations, badly bludgeoned bear that I am.

Regards,

Douglas

Hedge long es 5943, nq 21399, ym 42494

This predicts an [a] wave low on the next Gann 16 TD low where Venus trines Mars and the Sun sextiles Neptune 5/21. A [b] wave high is due on the 27th with both Saturn and Neptune sextile Mercury along with the biggy: the Sun trine Pluto Rx 5/27! Saturn also moves into Aries that weekend and joins Neptune within an acceptable orb. The new moon also hits that Memorial Holiday weekend, usually a high.

The [c] of A of © wave crash hits on May 30th, Sun conj. Mercury on a +5 to the 16 TD low just like May 7 (21 TD's).

The [a] wave should subdivide "a-b-c" with "a" early Tuesday on the Sun sextile Saturn aspect and then a "b" wave rally same day that fails.

This weekend also sees Mercury in Taurus create a rare waning sq. to Mars in Leo that affects Trump's chart as also does the Sun conj. Uranus.

Wave B of © looks to conclude as an a-b-c wave into the full moon June 11. More downside into June 25 expected

Down side minimum I think is ~5538 SPX next week where we have 2 FIB supports. ~5431/33 looks to be maximum.

I have been reading about the FED buying up US Treasuries on the sly last week. Are we looking at a potential worldwide debt collapse as I posited before?