A lot of us are able to remember 1987. I was a pup broker. I remember as spring wore on, secondaries (where all the Val-yuh Stocks were, and which Legg Mason encouraged us to focus our buying) did nothing or declined some, even as the DJIA just ground higher and higher. This of course went on for months. Had you shorted the majors, it would have been painful.

The current market, which has been narrowing, has a similar feel. I'm not going to say that it ends the same way. In fact, the sentiment profile is utterly inconsistent with a top of any import, let alone a Crash.But, I suppose the take-away is that, chances are, the leaders will grind higher for longer than expected, and we probably should not fight that. Also, we probably ought not bargain-hunt in the secondaries for a while.

ST, the very low P/C's bother me, but those tools are not as reliable as I'd like. Also, the low Rydex Ratio is pretty low, which has often, but not always, indicated some trouble ahead.

And the stock went up $110 since last night and is still going. UP 68% since June 1. $200 Billion Mrkt Cap. 

So no bubble? 

So many interesting signals out there right now on the market, which is way overdone in my view based  just on call volume sentiment and how extreme it is.  I'm still holding my outright short from 7625 now with a profit stop of 7615 going into the cash open.  Also still holding my e-mini Wednesday sell of the 7650 calls which I would go short there to if needed, but they are over 50% profitable so may take them off and roll into Thursday at the close if we move up here.  The market needs to start being truly volatile to have a chance of not seeing a big sell off.  Healthy markets see consistent up and down moves not one directional as we work on our 9th week up. 

eom

According to my turn probability summation system, there are two windows this week in which the probability of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is higher, the afternoon of Monday June 1st thru Tuesday June 2nd and on Friday June 5rh.

Last week the Tuesday 26th thru the morning of Wednesday May 27th turn window caught the low for the week and a nice turn higher as marked in red in the marketwatch.com plot segment below.

This market appears to currently be driven higher by something that reminds me of the guy who used to wander around Times Square wearing a front and rear poster board warning that the End is Near.  Of course the Times Square guy was warning incessantly about doom which never came where today's drum beat announcement of the end refers to the war in Iran which also doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon despite all the gum flapping to the contrary.  It's hard to know what might make the market wake up to the realization that this conflict could go on for a very long time, but when it does, I suspect it will not be well received.     

Regards,

Douglas