According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday April 23rd and a window stretching from the afternoon of Thursday the 25th through Friday April 26th.

 

Last week the Tuesday-Wednesday morning risk window caught the low for the week.  I'm not sure what to make of the Friday risk window.  If the DJIA heads down on Monday, then maybe a high of some sort, but if the DJIA lays flat or goes up, then the Friday risk window was just a garden variety dud which would be surprising given how strong that signal was.

 

 

Of course, the short term EWave count that I posted last week failed before the ink was dry, but by extending not reversing, so I guess that makes the failure a bit more palatable.  In this week's effort in futility below it looks like the rally out of last Wednesday's risk window low was the start of a 2nd wave inside the big "C" wave down.  For this count to be right, the DJIA will need to start heading south sharply in pretty short order.  The drunk driver of this bus off a cliff might be J. Powell's at his presser on May Day where he might finally confess his money pumping sins and does the full Volker given the recent resurgence in inflation, and later that day pigs will fly.    

 

 

The sentiment data from the money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed web site below would seem to support a rally of some sort in the coming days.  If the DJIA heads to new highs in this rally, then pigs are still just wallowing in the mud and my Ewave count above joins countless others crumpled up in the trash can beside my desk.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

See a spike in the Vix 24 thereabouts or more, and see the spx drop to 4900 could happen as soon as Monday or Tuesday. Only a bounce then we go back down until open week. Jmho

1. It can potentially affect my end of the year bonus
2. It is annoying to answer clients questions while Im golfing.
3. My wife gets stressed and that affects my sex life.
4. Now I have to look at the screen.
5. My son will have to suffer driving his old Ferrari.
6. I actually have to go to the office early.

Well, you get the point.
Cmon , lets start printing more money before we on Wall Street get pissed.

Janet, Jerome. Do you really want us to start calling you?

You know the drill!

NAAIM and II didn't shift very Bearish at all. AAII got a bunch of Bears, but not much of a drop in Bulls.

 

That sure doesn't feel like an imminent low to me. The Relative VIX has me looking, but not much is giving me courage.

 

M

I read an interesting article few days ago that substantially said they sold a large amount of bitcoin shares, in order to make its 

value drop and at the same time they opened a short trade on the bitcoin future, to take advantage of the drop from their leveraged

position in the future market. In other words they lost 1 on one part and gained 10 on the other one. Net gain was 9. Numbers can

be different, but the concept is clear.