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"Major Market Reversal Is Likely Coming"

13 Oct 2024

Posted by dTraderB in Fearless Forecasters
Maybe not MAJOR but I think there will be a pullback this week.

"A Major Market Reversal Is Likely Coming
Summary
The markets have been very dynamic recently, with many high-yield stocks and mega-cap tech stocks surging higher.
However, I think a major market reversal is likely coming in the near future.
https://seekingalpha...s-likely-coming

THIS FROM FUNDSTRAT:
They have calling it almost right most of the times but I disagree with this forecast below. STRETCHED BULLISH MARKET should give back some gains during first half of this OPEX week.
FUNDSTRAT:
Why Further Gains Are Possible After Choppy Week
Last week provided what Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee described as whipsaw action, consistent with his expectations for an iffy period for equities investors leading up to the election. Early on, investors worried over the possibility of escalating hostilities in the Middle East, as well as the path and potential impact of Hurricane Milton. As the week continued, some also eyed the impending release of inflation data warily.

The September CPI print showed inflation falling on a YoY basis, but it nevertheless came in higher than expected. In Lees view, We think this report will have little effect on the Feds thinking on future cuts, and thus, we expect this to be not meaningful for stocks in the near term.

The CPI print didnt really structurally change the outlook for inflation risk, Head of Data Science Ken Xuan said during our weekly researcj huddle. And from what I can see in the minutes for the September 18 FOMC meeting [which were released Wednesday], largely all of the participants saw inflation risk as diminishing, so the Fed has shifted back to its dual mandate.

Lee agreed. The reality is that the Fed is focused more on the employment numbers, and the Fed is now dovish largely to support the economy, he told us.

This week gave Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton reasons to maintain a near-term constructive view. One of the main short-term positives is that structure continues to be very bullish, he told us. We just saw the S&P 500 break out back to new all-time highs, as did the Dow. To me, this is very constructive in the short run, by which I mean the next one or two weeks, and I think its possible that next week we could see a pretty good push [for the S&P 500] up to near 5,835, or maybe even the area around 5,850.

Thats consistent with Lees intermediate-term view. We think investors should expect turbulence into Election Day, but the dips are buyable because there is too much cash on the sidelines, he said.
10/14 11:00 AM ET: Sep NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
10/15 8:30 AM ET: Oct Empire Manufacturing Survey
10/17 8:30 AM ET: Sep Retail Sales Data
10/17 8:30 AM ET: Oct Philly Fed Business Outlook
10/17 9:00 AM ET: Sep M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
10/17 10:00 AM ET: Oct NAHB Housing Market Index
10/17 4:00 PM ET: Aug Net TIC Flows

  2,250 Views · 99 Replies ( Last reply by 12SPX )

 Photo

"Major Market Reversal Is Likely Coming"

13 Oct 2024

Posted by dTraderB in Fearless Forecasters
Maybe not MAJOR but I think there will be a pullback this week.

"A Major Market Reversal Is Likely Coming
Summary
The markets have been very dynamic recently, with many high-yield stocks and mega-cap tech stocks surging higher.
However, I think a major market reversal is likely coming in the near future.
https://seekingalpha...s-likely-coming

THIS FROM FUNDSTRAT:
They have calling it almost right most of the times but I disagree with this forecast below. STRETCHED BULLISH MARKET should give back some gains during first half of this OPEX week.
FUNDSTRAT:
Why Further Gains Are Possible After Choppy Week
Last week provided what Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee described as whipsaw action, consistent with his expectations for an iffy period for equities investors leading up to the election. Early on, investors worried over the possibility of escalating hostilities in the Middle East, as well as the path and potential impact of Hurricane Milton. As the week continued, some also eyed the impending release of inflation data warily.

The September CPI print showed inflation falling on a YoY basis, but it nevertheless came in higher than expected. In Lees view, We think this report will have little effect on the Feds thinking on future cuts, and thus, we expect this to be not meaningful for stocks in the near term.

The CPI print didnt really structurally change the outlook for inflation risk, Head of Data Science Ken Xuan said during our weekly researcj huddle. And from what I can see in the minutes for the September 18 FOMC meeting [which were released Wednesday], largely all of the participants saw inflation risk as diminishing, so the Fed has shifted back to its dual mandate.

Lee agreed. The reality is that the Fed is focused more on the employment numbers, and the Fed is now dovish largely to support the economy, he told us.

This week gave Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton reasons to maintain a near-term constructive view. One of the main short-term positives is that structure continues to be very bullish, he told us. We just saw the S&P 500 break out back to new all-time highs, as did the Dow. To me, this is very constructive in the short run, by which I mean the next one or two weeks, and I think its possible that next week we could see a pretty good push [for the S&P 500] up to near 5,835, or maybe even the area around 5,850.

Thats consistent with Lees intermediate-term view. We think investors should expect turbulence into Election Day, but the dips are buyable because there is too much cash on the sidelines, he said.
10/14 11:00 AM ET: Sep NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
10/15 8:30 AM ET: Oct Empire Manufacturing Survey
10/17 8:30 AM ET: Sep Retail Sales Data
10/17 8:30 AM ET: Oct Philly Fed Business Outlook
10/17 9:00 AM ET: Sep M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
10/17 10:00 AM ET: Oct NAHB Housing Market Index
10/17 4:00 PM ET: Aug Net TIC Flows

  288 Views · 0 Replies

 Photo

a problem of entry point......lol

13 Oct 2024

Posted by andr99 in Fearless Forecasters

I'm thinking I might enter long an automaker which should rise very well till early next year, but maybe I should jump on it in a lower area if it is so kind to please me 

and to offer me a better entry point. 

  399 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by andr99 )

 Photo

OnT : a problem of technology

12 Oct 2024

Posted by steadyquest in Fearless Forecasters

Tradingview log charting appears to exhibit unreliable behavior over extreme ranges - presenting as distortion (at the lower end of the scale?).  Here's a chart of aapl/gold with the scale derived from the 5.25 and 3.5 levels.

AAPL-GLD.png

 

Here's the same chart with the scale derived from the lower two levels.

AAPL-GLD2.png
 

Assuming my math is correct, this is surprising and nontrivial, because trend lines depend on proper chart scaling.

  947 Views · 0 Replies

 Photo

OT : a problem of compatibility...

08 Oct 2024

Posted by andr99 in Fearless Forecasters

...between different cultures :

 

 

in the meanwhile leftists in italy have organized public unauthorized pro-hamas protests against Israel. The leftist leaders call them ''pacific''. 

Infact 34 policemen were wounded, that is what they call ''pacific''. just to let you know what is happening in Europe. 

 

They call it ''far right'', but you have to translate it as ''democratic'' which comes form ''democracy'' which means power of the people and not of the ''elites''

 

For all the rest i.e. the stock market, nothing has changed in my perspective and I'm bullish. 

  278 Views · 7 Replies ( Last reply by andr99 )



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