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Too many Bulls have me worried about a potential bottom

Yesterday, 02:35 PM

Posted by Rogerdodger in Fearless Forecasters

What stands out to me in the Stockcharts AAII Sentiment chart is that the percentage of bulls remains steadfast at around 33% which is much higher than previous bottoms.

 

FWIW, look at the early 2016 bull retreat as a comparison.

2200 better hold and 2100 for sure.

 

3-29-2020-bulls.jpg

  370 Views · 5 Replies ( Last reply by OEXCHAOS )

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Rebalance

Yesterday, 11:52 AM

Posted by tommyt in Fearless Forecasters
There is a huge rebalance into qtr end, big into equities. Can this get laid off and matched off tape so little effect on mkt? Too big, I assume no. If there will be equity buying on Tuesday, is it spread out near the end or market on close orders? What do the pensions buy? I assume their best picks? Thanks for any input.

  277 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by gm_general )

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Comparing 2008 to 2020 = Multiple bottoms likely

Yesterday, 11:21 AM

Posted by Rogerdodger in Fearless Forecasters

Sailing thru uncharted waters calls for extreme caution.

Opportunities are as vast as are the hazards.

 

When of this all hit, I compared recent extreme VIX measurements to past VIX extremes and saw that multiple bottoms were likely.

 

In this week's report, Mike Burk compares this crash to 2008 and he also sees the likelihood of multiple bottoms.

He also notes: "Given the current panic, seasonal averages are not relevant."

 

See: Mike Burk Charts

 

Be safe out there. Look for ways to enjoy your current (and hopefully temporary) retirement!

 

PS: Another Black Swan market hit is likely if the US President were to test positive.

 

PS:ps: Invest in any business that sells paint! The public is redecorating like mad. Long lines in the paint stores!

  263 Views · 4 Replies ( Last reply by beta )

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How many here think we have seen the drop's bottom ?

Yesterday, 10:54 AM

Posted by andr99 in Fearless Forecasters

and how many think we' re going much lower ? 

  513 Views · 14 Replies ( Last reply by K Wave )

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Heads up: big block SPY trades

28 Mar 2020

Posted by dowdeva in Fearless Forecasters

On Thursday and Friday, the 19th and the 20th, I  saw multiple blocks of 250K shares (and greater) purchased of the SPY at approximately 250, during which time the SPY was selling for 242-244. One of the blocks was  700K. The SPY rallied to 260 this week and then declined, back and forth, during which time I suppose these shares were dumped. I saw 5M shares alone sold between 3:30 and 4:00 this past Friday.

 

I didn't watch the tape much last week. To be frank, it bores me to tears. But yesterday again I clicked on times and sales once in a while and again kept seeing multiple big blocks purchased at 262. Two of these were for 2.5M and 5M shares, respectively.

 

Only one of the blocks I saw out of all of them spiked the price bar on my chart, from current price to the purchase price, in both of the weeks I watched-on Thursday the 19th my 1 min chart spiked from 243-244 to 262 for a millisecond.  'They must have seen me watching on my teeny webcam and hid the rest of the trades till the close.

 

purebs.gif

 

Those huge buys of shares at 262+ are still outstanding, IMO and we go up this Monday or Tuesday.

  376 Views · 4 Replies ( Last reply by dowdeva )



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