for as long as the ceasefire Israel-Lebanon goes on. Indexes here in Europe suddenly go up. 

https://wavegenius.p...00-word-article

AAII saw a 4% drop in Bulls in what is a very strong market.

Worse, the Rydex Ratio spiked.

It sure looks to me like the least sophisticated investors/traders don't believe this rally.

OTOH, ISEE is way up there, which suggests that retail speculators are ST very bulled up.

could be in for a sharp drop after reality starts back in. Europe look like it could really get smacked. I was thinking we should start watching Greek bonds. Remember the financial crisis? They don't have much of an economy only tourism. Europe has less than 6 weeks of Jet fuel left, Goodbye tourists.. The rest of EU looks  dicey to me too. Then of course there is Italy. The blockade of the Vatican should start any day now. Navy Seals snuck in and nailed a copy of The Art of The Deal on the Vatican door. Looks like those  Italian boys are going to have to learn the hard way, just like WWII.

The U.S.  will still have the same problems it did before the Iran War. Stagflation should come back in the spotlight. I think the health of the consumer starts to deteriorate more rapidly than they expect. And last but certainly not least is AI,  I think more signs of a top there will surface, However, I usually buy the semis in late May early June, I am expecting a mid year bounce there, but only to the price level we are seeing now, or less.

Place your bets, I've placed mine and unless something very big and unexpected happens at Hormuz, my bet goes with the first option.