out letters to 12 of our largest trading partners. Out of our top 30 trading partners we have 11 with credit balances credit balances and 19 with debit balances. Vietnam's balance is higher than I would have thought it was. Vietnam probably made a shrewd decision jumping in and accepting the 20% tariff, assuming higher tariffs for China enabling them to maintain the arbitrage. Tech heavy Ireland is high on the list, wonder what's going on there? Hong Kong we have a trade surplus, Tech? Didn't realize Canada and Mexico are that high up on the list, when combined they are bigger than the EU. What have our negotiators accomplished and who are these letters going too? We'll know soon enough.

List of the largest trading partners of the United States - Wikipedia

My risk summation system predicts that the days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday July the 7th (which is probably part of a wider risk window from last Thursday July 3rd) and Wednesday July 9th.

Last week the Monday June 30th risk window did not identify a turn or an acceleration, just a way-stop in the uptrend, so was a dud.  The jury is still out on the Thursday the 3rd thru Monday the 7th risk window.  Based on futures action on the 4th it looks like maybe this risk window tagged a top of some degree.  Time, as always, will tell the tale.

As I noted above, I understand that the stock market futures dropped Friday after the POTUS announced his latest big jump in tariffs letters to countries which have not made trade agreements with the US.   By this coming Monday morning, of course, these futures could be once again soaring higher, so I not sure whether to put too much credence in this holiday futures' action.  So far these big tariff increase threats by the POTUS have persuaded smaller trading partners my adopted home the UK and Vietnam to reach agreements.  This time one of the targets of these threats is the European Union which is bigger than the US population-wise and a big trading entity in its own right.  It will be interesting to see if the EU accedes to the POTUS demands or if it calls what it might perceive as a bluff.  If so, next week could be very interesting stock market-wise as the July 9th deadline comes and goes.  

Regards,

Douglas

it should be like the irrational exuberance the stock market experienced in late 2000, just before the tech bubble bursted. Also the time for the TOP  might be similar, February or March. 

I'm posting hyperactively lately, it's due to the dip I'm waiting for re-entering long that hasn't yet occurred. 

https://www.tradingv...nd-of-the-year/

if they are right, the pull back I'm waiting for, won't be imminent as I thought, but delayed