Apple which has more spare cash than they can possibly deploy is apparently selling bonds to help pay its dividend.  If credit was even remotely tight or interest rates anywhere near "neutral" would this make any sense?  It does to Apple which can borrow at near dirt cheap  Treasury rates six per cent below the rate of inflation.   This is a glass clear sign that there is still too much funny money sloshing around in the system.

As I predicted in my risk window note, the Fed minions were out in force today trying desperately to convince anyone who would listen  that, no, Powell is not about to pivot and, yes, they really, really are serious about jacking up rates to kill inflation, pinky swear.  This month they are supposed to start serious draw down of their balance sheet.  When the rate of draw down starts to equal, or better, exceed the ramp up, then you know they are serious.  Until then, talk is cheap, but not as cheap as Apple is borrowing.  

Regards,

Douglas

The 6 month cycle low is arriving 1 week late up against the Sun Jupiter Rx trine on July 31, which allows for a 5 TD panic into the Gann 8/16/32+1 TD low on Friday, August 5. We have already seen a 50% retrace of the March 29 to June 17 low, up against much overhead resistance. Today has the ominous Mars/Uranus/Rahu conjunction in Taurus and this weekend Mars sq Saturn.

See my private BLOG

SPX 3800 area and Ether 1400 area. 

Been a nice run. Still have about 40% long.

Short a couple contracts of oil now, thing looks doggy. 

My FF is slight dip, ES 4250 to 4300 high. could be another % or two higher, then start of even more  volatile period with a BOG REVERSAL into End of August and into September

NET SHORT now, relatively small position, will build as rally continues 

According to my risk summation system, next week is going to be a mess.  The system has a peak on Monday and one from sometime roughly mid-day Tuesday to about mid-day Wednesday and one stretching from next Friday the 5th through the following Monday the 8th, a mess.  

Last week the Monday risk window was a dud and the Wednesday risk window missed the low on Tuesday by a couple of hours, close but no cigar.  

Notice anything funny about the slope of the money out (red line) versus the money in (green line) on the Fed balance sheet plot below from the St Louis Fed?  If the Fed's hands are supposed to be wrapped around the throat of the economy, they sure aren't trying to choke it, maybe give it a loving hug, but definitely not throttling to any where near the degree that they were pumping it only a few months ago. 

Last week's stock market rally has got to have the Fed worried.  How are you going get away with gradually starving the unwashed hoi polloi if the hoity toity are raking it in.  Making  womanizing billionaires into trillionaires while gradually ratcheting down the standard of living of the masses just has "bad idea" written all over it.   

Two negative GDP quarters in a row should be called a recession, mild though it may be, but a rose is still a rose no matter what name you give it.  The plot above shows precisely why this is a recession in name only, liquidity out the wazoo created since the pandemic low on the left of the chart.  Financial institutions are literally rolling in the green stuff.  As of last Wednesday the Fed charges member banks 2.5%/yr to borrow money overnight to tidy up their balance sheet.  This is a charade, banks are not paying this.  If they were, they would offer me more than 0.1% for my money.  The banks must still be flush and don't need either my or the Fed's largesse.   Until this changes, inflation will keep simmering, maybe not boiling, but bubbling away eating into the purchasing power of the masses.

Regards,

Douglas