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#21 inamosa

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 02:55 PM

This is a great thread! When I have to spend over a half hour lurking over a discussion like this, that's worth the price of admission and what FF should ideally be about.
Great stuff folks! :yes:



Agreed

Great work everyone
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#22 milbank

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 02:55 PM

that's worth the price of admission


Uhhh...errr....that kinda came out wrong..err...ahh...well, you know what I mean. :blush:

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#23 IYB

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 06:52 PM

that's worth the price of admission


Uhhh...errr....that kinda came out wrong..err...ahh...well, you know what I mean. :blush:

I didn't even think of the irony of that statement until you posted the above, because I did know what you meant, Mily. :lol:

PS- I checking with Swenlin, as Mark suggested, to see if SC can use DP proprietary symbols....

Edited by IYB, 01 August 2009 - 06:55 PM.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#24 IYB

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 09:18 PM

Heard back from Carl and here's the skinny: There is no way to run DP proprietary symbols on SC charts. However Carl suggested that I just set up any chart I want to look at DP on continuing basis and bookmark it. That way anytime I go to that bookmarked link, I get the latest version of the chart just as I set it up. For example, I set up these three charts and bookmarked 'em, Dano. Notice, by the way, the prime example once again of "context", where bear market rules and bull market rules for "how high is high" are completely different. In other words the 2.0 reading is quite meaningful as a sell signal in a bear market, but pretty much meaningless in a bull market. Context is everything, which, I'm afraid takes us right back to the raging debate about the current context. But if nothing else, we all learned, thanks to Will, how to harness a powerful analytical tool at DP: 0117.png 0119.png 0118.png Aloha
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#25 U.F.O.

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 09:26 PM

I agree IYB...context is everything. Question. How does one play any market when more liquidity has been injected than has ever been added in history?

U.F.O.

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"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~

#26 IYB

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 10:39 PM

Great seein' you here UFO. Missed ya'. I hear ya' about the money supply, Bro, but we are fighting a major deflationary trend, so who will win? The Fed or the forces of nature? We know the answer to that question in Japan over nearly two decades. Wasn't the fed. But all that aside, all I care is one simple thing -- what's the stock market trend as defined by internals? Let others argue whether we are inflating or deflating. Which force is stronger? My job is only to identify the prevailing trend of the stock market, pure and simple. Period. Not sayin' your argument won't turn out to be the right one. It absolutely may be. Just sayin' I will look only to the market for that decision, not the funnymentals. Take good care. D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#27 dowdeva

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 11:20 PM

weekly OCC index putcall premium ratio ended at .78 after 2 weeks in the mid .80s area. for reference, 6/12 weekly came in at .75, .70 the week before. that.

reaching bearish territory, but the primary mkt trend may remain in meltup mode until the ~81TD cycle sputters out (not due until late August)....
fwiw, my software is giving the following cycle projections:

instrument, base cycle wavelength, projected #of bars to peak
DIA, 83, 21
(IWM, MDY), 81, 21
QQQQ, 41, 5
SPY, 81, 19


Marketneutral,

Curious, what kind of signal did your cycle analysis software give you at the beginning of June and going on, to to July 1, as opposed to IYB's chart he displayed for June vs. the current situation (which currently still has a month to play out if you use June 1 as his baseline signal).

And did it give you a buy signal anywhere from July 7 to 10? If it displays an 81 day cycle, where would these dates fit in as this period is less than 81 days?

Not sure if I am making any sense or not.

Can you display a chart at all?

Thanks.

#28 dowdeva

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Posted 01 August 2009 - 11:28 PM

This question is actually addressed to marketneutral. I noticed when I replied to his post, it was tree'd up at the top, and would like to make sure he sees it. Not sure why that happens, and wish all the posts were in chronological order. Mark, as this is a duplicate post, feel free to delete the other one. My question redux: Marketneutral, Curious, what kind of signal did your cycle analysis software give you at the beginning of June and going on, to to July 1, as opposed to IYB's chart he displayed for June vs. the current situation (which currently still has a month to play out if you use June 1 as his baseline signal). And did it give you a buy signal anywhere from July 7 to 10? If it displays an 81 day cycle, where would these dates fit in as this period is less than 81 days? Not sure if I am making any sense or not. Can you display a chart at all? Thanks.

#29 lennie

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Posted 03 August 2009 - 04:27 PM

You guys better read this:

http://seekingalpha....t-call-strategy

If you got a meth id ology for the tradin' you better test it wit a 'puter so
their is no bias.

Put another way, the strategy is taking a contrarian position against the put/call ratio. A high put/call ratio would indicate that a large number of investors are betting on (or hedging against) the market falling. This strategy is buying into that bearishness except when the market is very overbought and due a pullback.

This all of course goes very much against conventional wisdom, but like most things in the stock market, conventional wisdom is usually not all that wise.


Bye George. Don't let the conventional wisdom bite ya.
S&P 500 -> Goin up. Everything else -> Don't know.

Will update the next swing.

#30 IYB

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Posted 06 August 2009 - 04:59 PM

COB 8-06-09 we have another 2008/2009 new high reading, which by bear market standards would say the top is likely in: 0136.png
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds