678 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

This is the USD Index. For some reason inverting it shows the pattern more clearly. Looks like the breakout from a textbook 4th wave contracting triangle and it's run is not yet finished.

 

 

[Smithy]

Two interesting points this rainy Saturday:

 

(1) GDX up $0.50 on the week when gold down $9 and silver $0.34.

 

(2) gold OI increased by an amazing 20% in 2 weeks. Reflects money going into gold instead of other markets.

McClellan has a system that says OI jumps up or down are associated with changes in trend.

[Smithy]

Incrementum interviews Heinz Blaznik (Acting Man), Mark Burridge (a gold hedgie) and some of their staff.

 

https://gallery.mail...ril_2019.02.pdf

[Smithy]

[Smithy]

5/25 Saturday - Twiggy -

 

Silver found short-term support at $14.50/ounce but declining Trend Index peaks indicate selling pressure and a test of primary support at $14 is likely.

 

Gold, by contrast, has found strong support at $1280/ounce, refusing to give way despite concerted selling. Breach of 1280 would signal a test of primary support at 1180 but recovery above 1300 becomes increasingly likely the longer that support holds. Gold is at a watershed.

 

A rising Dollar would weaken demand for Gold but the Dollar Index has met strong resistance between 97 and 98. Follow-through above 98 would signal a fresh advance but a fall below 97 would be bullish for Gold.

 

10-Year Treasury yields have also broken support at 2.4% offering a short-term target of 2.2%. Falling Treasury yields have a depressing effect on the Dollar and boost demand for Gold (by lowering the opportunity cost).

[Smithy]

Sunday 5/26

 

Stolen from goldpredict.com

 

[Smithy]

This week's silver COT commercial's position is a buy signal for silver. DYODD, it's tricky.

[Smithy]

People like Kyle Bass say when the economy cools the first thing the Fed will do is drop rates to zero. I think they are wrong.

 

(1) the interest rate market is much bigger than the Fed and they can't control it, they have no choice but to follow it, more or less.

 

(2) the 36 year cycle governs rates; think 1980 peak to 2016 low. This cycle means rates rise from here for a long time to come. In the 1970's rising rates and rising gold went hand in hand.

 

(3) the current drop in 10 year rates is just a pullback for a goodbye kiss to the long term trend line it broke out of.

 

Comments welcome.

[Smithy]

I have two mandatory seasonal gold sells each year, March 1st and end May. So is tomorrow an important sell...  or are g&s roaring?

Beats me, but I'm long. The risk is a drop to around the middle of June.

[Smithy]

Saturday 6/1     Twiggy

 

Realization that we are slipping into a trade war is starting to sink in.

The S&P 500 broke medium-term support at 2800, warning of a correction. The target is primary support at 2400. Volatility is flashing an amber warning, above 1.0%.

Nymex crude is plunging as anticipated global demand falls.

Long-term Treasury yields are falling, with the 10-Year headed for a test of support at 2.0%.

The Yield Differential is back below zero, warning of a recession.

 

A negative yield curve is a reliable early indicator of recession but trouble is imminent when it recovers above zero. Normally caused by the Fed cutting interest rates in response to falling employment growth. The critical indicator to watch is non-farm payroll growth. When that falls below 1.0% (right-hand scale), watch out!

 

Gold recovered above $1300/ounce, signaling another test of resistance at $1350. This may be the watershed that I spoke of last week, where safe haven demand for Gold surges. Breakout above $1350 would signal a fresh advance.