678 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Bueno timing on posting that chart amigo! If wave 2's bottomed in gold/silver this is they type of initial rally I would expect - we have a long ways to go but todays action so far with silver up over 2% and easily back above the .618 retrace looks good so far

 

Senor

[Smithy]

Saturday morning reflections

 

I want to make the case that last Thurs (5/2) was an intermediate low for silver, and the angle I'm taking here is that the occurrence of some Fib numbers and ratios is a significant corroboration. 

 

Silver rose from the low 11/14/19 at $13.89 to a peak on 1/31 at $16.19, + 16.6%.

 

1) The drop from that peak to last Thurs low at $14.56  is -$1.63, close to 1.62

 

2) when I divide the -$1.63 drop by the +$2.30 rise I get -70.9% close to a Fib 70.7%, the square root of 50%.

 

3) when I divide the -10.1% drop by the +16.6% rise, I get -61%, close to 62% Fib.

 

Whether these Fibs are a useful technical tool or mere EW superstition will become apparent next week.

 

Sentiment is extremely negative and the silver wave pattern acceptable for the completion of the correction.

Senor nailed it that we need to see a continue rise from here. A silver price moving below last Thursday's spot silver low of $14.56 would invalidate the bullish view and point to further lows.

 

Three serious bearish factors (and there may be more) are that

1) the HUI:gold ratio is plunging relative to the gold price,

2) that EW could allow for gold to make one or two more small down legs over the next week or two,

3) that there is a broken neckline, clearest in gold at $1282, that gives a downside target of $1220. Gold getting above $1282 would void that.

 

Gold's recent exact double bottom at 1266.6, nine days apart, is encouraging for the bulls and is another good stoploss level.

[Smithy]

Platinum

 

Gann Global Financial has a 60 year cycle. Platinum launched a huge move from a low in Dec. 1958.

 

Hadik said platinum would be held back until April, which ended a week ago.

 

(Subscribing to Hadik $99 for a month is a good idea from time to time. He's very good. End of free plug.)

 

Gold's range on Friday was $14, platinum's $30.

 

I think platinum will hugely outperform gold going forward.

[Smithy]

Flag = flagpole

 

 

Edited by Smithy, 07 May 2019 - 09:18 AM.

[senorBS]

Flag = flagpole

 

 

well the initial 5 up high now taken out, lets see if we now might rally to and above 1300 in a wave 3? IMO the stage is certainly set

 

Senor

[Smithy]

[Smithy]

The close on Friday showed HUI down considerably against a sideways gold price. That's bearish for next week.  

[Smithy]

[Smithy]

Saturday review 5/11   gold at $1285

 

I have a downside target for gold around $1250 provided it stays below $1292 spot (silver $14.98). Above that I'm bullish.

[Smithy]

The behavior of distant silver futures contracts

 

This week spot silver close down 16 cents on the week. The futures delivery month of Dec 2023 closed  UP 5 cents. That is a spread increase of $0.21 in one week in a falling market. Can anyone tell me why this happens?  I can only conclude the distant months are sticky for higher silver prices, which is bullish.