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Intermediate Trend commentary


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#1 Entropy3.0

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 04:03 PM

Looks an important week to me here on the Intermediate Trend cycle, so i've reviewed my  IT signal model in a little detail below for anyone interested.
 
Bottom line - I'm bearish the IT still here, and see high odds a move down to 2530-2550, but, also high odds a move to 2480 or even 2450 in panic move intraday ( not closing low). We can always bounce, but, I expect any bounce to be short lived, and limited to fib (50% max) retracements of proceeding drops. 
 
Shorter term - monday: there is one setup for a bounce monday AM to 2640'ish - then begin to roll over again, but also a setup for a big move down monday. Sunday night ES might shed some light on that. 
 
Of course, its a FED week, so maybe we get more 'games' and no resolution until post FED - but, that's about the only 'bullish' hope I can see right here. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------------------
IT  model - Liquidity(LQ), then Sentment, internals and price.
LQ - bearish for next week 
 
Sentiment -Investor/Money Managers
 
Trader sentiment-
 
Internals - bearish. 
 
Price Setup - bearish.
 
Bigger Picture - Still a bull? is it a bear?
I posted in spring a price pattern setup bullish into Autumn then sharp drop - see chart.
 
We executed that setup very closely, including the drop. I didn't show what occurs after, so,
it does not answer bull or bear. But I've said since October, I have us in 'transition period', which means
 - there was a possibility of finding an IT low before xmas, and taking a last run toward the High.
 - that possibility is low odds now, because as I said we have failed to trigger for an IT low.
Really, unless we crash, knowing its a 'bear' doesn't change much, the aim is to capture trades in BOTH directions whether its a bull or bear. 
OK but the pattern I posted and current patterns, what kind of bear market does it imply?
A reasonable high odds target of those patterns is SPX 2300, more likely 2100 area over 18month period. Then high odds a 3-5 year bull market to significant All time highs.
OK but first, lets confirm this actually IS a bear market! we don't have price confirmation of that yet on my signals   - I've got various high odds signals on price to confirm a bear market, but we haven't got any yet,  though we are very close - a close in December under 2500 for example would do it.
 
note. not even breaking 2500 on daily basis will put us in confirmed bear, it's more of weekly/monthly, so its kinda moot right now - the transition period into a bear, or out of it into bull, is the hardest to get right and I prefer to take each IT moves up/down as it comes, and use that as confirmation. Right now, we are still in IT downmove, and I don't have buy signals, so the 'bears have the ball' and we'll see how far they run.
 (* However, I would be remiss not to warn, there is a much more bearish alternate pattern, but that is now lower odds due to credit market signals I use, at least until 2025-2030 timeframe,  but, it will become obvious if this were playing out in due course )
 
 
Disclaimers: 
 - just my personal views, not trading advice etc etc ..u know the drill - 
- I'm very confident in my system, but I don't own the holy grail:- no one does, no one can say 100% what market will do. Trading is understanding there is always a  high odds, and low odds setup: betting on the high odds setup, and having a stop in case its the low odds setup. 
 - As per tag line, I can only trade my system and not worry about 'the news', other signals I don't use, or other opinions as that leads to analysis paralysis. 
- Every new trading session is 'new information' that can change/alter the signals/setups and high/lows odds.
- For the short term system, I can't show most of the signals, because I developed unique ways of viewing market that is edge. I utilize mostly the following: price, momentum, volatility, liquidity, sentiment and my own fractal method to generate 'setups' (as opposed to multiple counts).
Questions/Clarifications welcome as time allows. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 16 December 2018 - 04:07 PM.

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#2 beta

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 05:54 PM

Thank you for sharing your first-rate TA.   

 

Re wave counts, I understand why some might interpret the current wave down as a "C" (which also takes a 5-wave form).  However, the reason I'm inclined to view this as beginning stages of a primary impulse wave, instead of corrective, is because the current wave characteristics are too similar in both configuration and size to the Jan-Feb correction.  

 

Simply put, if this were a correction of the larger trend, the pattern should be of a much larger degree and magnitude than the prior correction.  The size of the next bounces will be telling; if this is a "3" wave, we will see relentless, step-function selling that defies all sentiment lows, oversold momentum and gaps.  

 

FWIW, I have SPX 2522 as next target, which will be confirmed by price confined to 2577-2610 tomorrow AM.  

 

I believe we will see SPX 2468 (minimum) before this wave completes, and quite possibly, down to 200-weekly support @ 2340.

 

Safe trading to all.


Edited by beta, 16 December 2018 - 06:02 PM.

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#3 slatedrake

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 07:34 PM

Outstanding post.  Many thanks.

 


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#4 Waver

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 09:09 PM

Thanks Entropy!

#5 Entropy3.0

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Posted 16 December 2018 - 10:10 PM

Thx guys and ur welcome. 

 

For some reason the Internals video isn't playing, i'll try to repost it here:

https://www.screencast.com/t/Gifqct1Ae

 

beta - re:wave counts

What you say is obviously possible - I just say 'C' because that is all that is provable on my system at this point, I expect it morph's into something else. i.e its 'at least' a C wave. I try to avoid getting into detail on wave counts because for me, wave counts are just another price setup, and signals are more important.  

 

ES - looks like 'bots yet again driving it up possibly toward that 2640 area I mentioned - we'll see if it hold to another gap up resetting the 'slope of hope'.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 16 December 2018 - 10:11 PM.

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#6 MDurkin

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 11:38 AM

Nice review. 



#7 Entropy3.0

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 01:34 PM

Thx MDurkin.

 

 

Short term -

Well, i'm FINALLY..STARTING to see some panic here...early stages... high odds finally tag Feb Lows 2530-2550 this afternoon, 

chance for 50+ pt bounce there to  try to save that Key 2580 CLOSING level    OR we just finally fail into that full panic I'm waiting for.


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#8 Entropy3.0

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 03:50 PM

There's the tag of 2530 finally !

 

They have 10 minutes to try to save this - or we go high odds into full panic mode into tomorrow.


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#9 beta

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 04:12 PM

Covered all shorts.   Short-term bounce coming to SP 2580-2600.


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#10 beta

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Posted 17 December 2018 - 04:24 PM

...more like 2565-2577.   


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