21 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Terry's work.
November 20 2006: LINK

Here are a few out-takes:
Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff, had investigated the possibilities of very long term economic cycles. The basic thesis of his work was that very long term economic cycles existed, but were not
recognized by the economists of his day. In his study of commodity prices (wood, coal, iron, grains) and wages in the 1800 to 1900 period he concluded long cycles of 48 to 55 years duration existed.

I made good money based on it and was correctly warned of the 1980 peak and therefore the sharp decline into the 1982 low.

I noticed some of the long term corrections in this 200 year history were complete wipeouts; depression and accompanying failure of financial institutions, but some of the long term 40 year cycle corrections were relative mild without serious, non-recoverable losses.

My major concern is that if the nature of the 40 year lows continues to vary in an alternating sequence between mild lows and severe lows, then the next low could be very severe. This could imply the failure of basic financial institutions and perhaps a non recoverable situation.

[10Shekel]

Wow!....The Transport & Value Line Ts blow my mind...something to chew on during the long weekend. Thx RD.

[Rogerdodger]

When I first read this in 2006, I kind of poo-pooed it.
I know there are cycles which we can find.
But, it's almost like the 3 Fates are at work.



The Fates were three mythological goddesses and may refer to:

• Moirae, the Fates of Greek mythology
• Parcae, the Fates of Roman mythology
• Norns, numerous female beings who determine the fate or future of a person in Germanic paganism

[humble1]

two points: * we have ALREADY had "failure of major institutions"; hasn't he heard of the lehman bankruptcy, the FED rescue of AIG, the gubmint programs to pump up the major banks and brokerages, LOL? * how does he jump from the k-wave cycle (55-60 years) to a 40 year cycle?

Edited by humble1, 15 February 2009 - 01:22 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

IF there are some kind of controlling 40 & 80 year cycles, then it seems that any governmental efforts to thwart them might be akin to revoking Daylight Savings Time so that the Sun won't be so hot.

[10Shekel]

George Angell ("How to Triple Your Money Every Year"...) talks about a 3 day cycle "the psychology of the floor"...

[Rogerdodger]

hasn't he heard of the lehman bankruptcy, the FED rescue of AIG, the gubmint programs to pump up the major banks and brokerages,

Had that already happened in 2006 when this was written?

how does he jump from the k-wave cycle (55-60 years) to a 40 year cycle?

Read the link.

[underabigw]

Roger, My two cents on this is that what Kondratieff was actually seeing was that long-term economic cycles, that resulted in a severe financial collapse, were based on the average life expectancy at the time. In other words, the generation that had suffered through a depression (such as my father did growing up during the 1930's) would not make the same mistakes twice that caused the depression. It would be the next generation that would make those same mistakes. UBW

[Rogerdodger]

based on the average life expectancy at the time.

Could be. That's as good an explanation as any I have.

The problem I have with such long cycles with a relatively short sampling period of say 200 years, is that
it may only appear to be a cycle and may just be coincidence.

The human mind is good at "creating" a non-existent cause from effect.
(i.e.: "I usually win at the casino on the 3rd Tuesday each month.")

[humble1]

no, i don't want/need to read the link. all kinds of people have made predictions like that and now claim they were right. 2008 - 40 = 1968, not such a bad year 2008 - 80 = 1928, a boom year if you want to go back to the 1800's there were enough crashes and panics and financial institution collapses to fit any cycle, LOL.

Edited by humble1, 15 February 2009 - 02:36 PM.